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Senate Race Rankings

Hotline's Amy Walter and Quinn McCord list which Senate seats are most likely to switch party control in November based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

There is very little movement at the top of the standings this time around. The landscape and fundraising still decisively favor the Democrats, but it remains to be seen whether they can produce the major electoral wave necessary to circumvent Republican filibusters.

Updated: July 23, 2008 • House Rankings



Rank State Incumbent/Party Previous
 1 Virginia Open Seat (R) 1

If Mark Warner really wanted to spice up this race, he'd offer to swap war chests with Jim Gilmore. Just think how interesting this contest might be if it was Gilmore who had the 44-1 cash-on-hand advantage!

 2 New Mexico Open Seat (R) 2

Steve Pearce eked out his June primary win with very little money left in the bank -- which raises the question of how extensively he's willing and able to self-fund his campaign this fall. He certainly has to do something soon to start chipping away at Tom Udall's money and polling leads.

 3 New Hampshire John Sununu (R) 3

John Sununu's one bright spot continues to be his cash lead, but taking everything into account, he still remains the underdog. We do expect this race to tighten up, since Shaheen has political baggage she'll have to answer for.

 4 Colorado Open Seat (R) 4

Mark Udall and his allies have been spending money hand-over-fist, doing their best to define this race before Bob Schaffer has a chance to respond in any substantive way. Schaffer's best strategy at this point might be the "Rocky III" defense: just let yourself get pummeled, hope your opponents waste their best shots early on, and husband your resources for a few well-placed shots of your own at the very end.

 5 Alaska Ted Stevens (R) 5

Like Sununu, there's no denying that Stevens is polling below 50 percent -- a dangerous place for any incumbent to be, especially one with legal issues. (And in a cheap state, which is very inviting for outside groups.) If outsiders do come in, though, Stevens' best hope might be that voters develop a "Sure, he's a jerk, but he's our jerk" mentality and rally around him -- a stretch, perhaps, but undecided voters in Alaska have tilted towards the GOP in past races.

 6 Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D) 6

This race is still as tough to handicap as ever, but it's worth noting that it'll be the first one in 30 years in which a candidate need not reach 50 percent on Election Day in order to win. Can we assume that the Libertarian and two independent candidates marginally hurt John Kennedy a bit more than Mary Landrieu?

 7 Oregon Gordon Smith (R) 8

With Jeff Merkley still somewhat of a blank slate, this race is shaping up to be little more than a retention vote on Gordon Smith. That would normally be good news for a well-liked incumbent, but for a Republican in Oregon, it's not inconceivable that voters this year may side with the devil they don't know over the one they do.

 8 Mississippi Roger Wicker (R) 7

Like Oregon, it's a state in which the DSCC will probably have to play heavily simply to even out the cash disparity between their candidate and the GOP incumbent. Republicans can only hope that the lesson of MS-01 is not merely that the GOP brand is hurting even in the South, but also that outside groups have only limited sway down there.

 9 Minnesota Norm Coleman (R) 9

Republicans have done a fairly good job keeping the press focused on Al Franken's baggage, and doubts about the comedian seem to be reflected in the polls. Still, Dems dodged a major bullet when Jesse Ventura announced he wouldn't run (although they may have been grazed by a smaller one -- Dean Barkley's candidacy). Like Oregon, it's a blue-leaning state that could conceivably be in the mood to simply "throw the bums out" this fall, regardless of the challenger's flaws.

 10 North Carolina Elizabeth Dole (R) 10

For whatever reason (possibly the early TV ads), Dole now seems to have a bit of breathing room in the polls in what was briefly a statistically tied race. Nevertheless, she's still hovering around 50 percent, and the DSCC seems likely to throw some more money against her. Another factor that could affect the race might be the amount of money Obama ends up spending here.

 11 Maine Susan Collins (R) 11
 12 Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R) 12
 13 Kansas Pat Roberts (R) 14
 14 Oklahoma James Inhofe (R) 20
 15 Nebraska Open Seat (R) 15
 16 Idaho Open Seat (R) 16
 17 Georgia Saxby Chambliss (R) 18
 18 New Jersey Frank Lautenberg (D) 13
 19 South Dakota Tim Johnson (D) 17
 20 Texas John Cornyn (R) 19


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Special Elections

Six districts are holding contests before November. See the 2008 Special Elections page for a complete rundown.


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