- Fri. Jul 4, 2008
|
Search Sponsor:
|
After suffering a six-seat loss in 2006, the electoral math -- at least on paper -- gets worse for Senate Republicans in the 2008 cycle. The GOP will be defending 23 seats, while Democrats must protect just a dozen. Republicans have to contend with five retirements -- Sens. Wayne Allard of Colorado, Larry Craig of Idaho, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia .
Republicans' success or failure will depend in part on the strength of the GOP presidential nominee in 2008. Of the 23 Republican seats up in the new cycle, President Bush lost just four of the states involved in 2004. In the Northeast, potential Democratic vacancies and good recruitment could put Republicans in contention in states such as New Jersey.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Political Director Mike Slanker acknowledges that 2008 will be a "tough challenge" but said Republicans are "highly motivated" after the 2006 results. Following is a state-by-state look at how the 2008 contests for Republican-held seats are shaping up.
Alabama. Buzz about Democratic Rep. Artur Davis' senatorial ambitions started the morning after the 2006 midterm elections, and the moderate Democrat could have posed a challenge to two-term GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions in 2008. However, in January, Davis opted out of running, citing his appointment to the Ways and Means Committee and the time fundraising would take away from his congressional duties. With Davis out of the running, the field appeared to be wide open. State Sen. Vivian Davis Figures and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks both publicly said they were considering entering the race. However, Sparks in June said he decided not to run because he expected Figures, an African American from Mobile, to enter the race. In August Figures announced her candidacy. Figures criticized Sessions, calling him partisan and ineffective.
Alaska. While he will be 84 on Election Day, GOP Sen. Ted Stevens announced last year he would run for a seventh full term in 2008. At the time of the announcement, he appeared to be a cinch for re-election. His efforts to deliver federal largesse to his sprawling, largely rural constituency have sparked controversy elsewhere, but they have endeared him to his constituents. He has never been sent to Washington with less than 60 percent of the vote and garnered 78 percent in winning another term in 2002. However, an ongoing investigation of Stevens' relationship with an oil field services contractor who was convicted last year of bribing state lawmakers might make this year one of his most challenging re-election bids. In July, the FBI and IRS searched Stevens' home. Investigators have been looking into a 2000 remodeling project of Stevens' home. Democrats pick up a top tier recruit in Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who heads of the state's largest city
Colorado. GOP Sen. Wayne Allard announced he would honor a pledge to serve two terms and not seek re-election this year. The the Republican field now appears to be set, and on the Democratic side, Rep. Mark Udall is running. Allard was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and re-elected in 2002 against the same opponent, attorney Tom Strickland, winning both races 51-46 percent. With the vacancy, former Rep. Scott McInnis, viewed as a strong contender, filed paperwork for an exploratory committee. However, he announced in March he would not run, leaving the GOP field wide open. Former Rep. Bob Schaffer, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP Senate nomination in 2004 when Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar joined the race. This is a state that has been turning from "red" to "purple." President Bush won here in 2004 by 52-47 percent, and the Democrats are coming off a 2006 election in which they picked up the governorship and a House seat -- giving them a majority of the state's House delegation.
Georgia. Democrats are said to be spoiling for a rematch with GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, after his 2002 defeat of Democratic Sen. Max Cleland. Although Georgia has become increasingly Republican over the last decade, the field of potential Democratic challengers in 2008 is impressive. After dropping hints that he might be interested in running, Vernon Jones, chief executive officer of the suburban Atlanta's DeKalb County, said he filed papers to form an exploratory committee in 2006. "I do believe Georgia needs another conservative Democrat and I think I represent that conservative base," Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Meanwhile, television journalist Dale Cardwell announced in June he would run as a Democrat. Cardwell billed himself as a political outsider. In March, former state Rep. Jim Martin entered the race. Chambliss took some criticism over his initial support for the comprehensive immigration plan from the Republican base. While that gives Democrats another reason to go after him, a full-bore campaign against the senator would be expensive.
Idaho. Even before he announced last summer he planned to resign at the end of September, many wondered whether GOP Sen. Larry Craig would run for another term. "There are a lot of questions about whether he will run or not," said Chuck Oxley, the state Democratic Party's communications director, in 2006. Craig made the announcement in September after it was reveled he pled guilty to disorderly conduct in an airport bathroom. Craig maintained his innocence and said he pled guilty to avoid the unwanted attention the incident would bring. After the event became public, Craig said he wanted to clear his name. He stayed on past September, waiting for a judge to rule on whether he could get the guilty plea withdrawn. That bid failed in October. After the ruling, he said he would complete his term, but not seek re-election. The roster of candidates from both parties had revolved around Craig's decision. Former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco, who represented the state for two terms in the House in the early 1990s and who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in 2006, announced he would run long before Craig's incident. Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Risch entered the race in October, with the support of the state party establishment including, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho. Six years ago, the Democrats put up Alan Blinken, a former Clinton administration ambassador who spent $1.5 million of his own money on the campaign. Craig defeated him by 2-1.
Kansas. Seventy-one-year-old GOP Sen. Pat Roberts had been on various watch lists of lawmakers who might retire this year. But Roberts, who served 16 years in the House before winning election to the Senate in 1996, filed for re-election in January. Roberts, a onetime House Agriculture Committee chairman who has championed market-based reforms in farm subsidy programs, is generally viewed as a strong incumbent. History has not been kind to Democratic Senate candidates in Kansas: One has not been elected since 1932. Former Democratic Rep. Dan Glickman toyed with challenging Roberts in 2002 after serving as secretary of Agriculture under President Clinton, but backed off. Roberts coasted to re-election that year with 83 percent of the vote and no Democratic opponent. Businessman Greg Orman entered the race in January, but abruptly withdrew in February. Railroad engineer Lee Jones, who took 27 percent of the vote against Sen. Sam Brownback in 2004, is the only Democrat running. Had Roberts opted not to seek re-election, a likely Republican contender for his seat would have been five-term Republican Rep. Jerry Moran. In March, former six-term Democratic Rep. Jim Slattery, entered the race.
Kentucky. Kentucky Democrats began the cycle by taking a one-step-at-a-time approach to defeating GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell -- the Senate minority leader -- starting with 2007's gubernatorial race. Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher, whose first term was been consumed by a grand jury investigation of his hiring practices, was handily defeated by former Democratic Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Democrats hope the takeover of the governor's mansion gives them a major this year, when they would have to spend big in the state's three major media markets in any serious effort to oust McConnell, who -- since first being elected in 1984 -- has been the primary architect of the current Republican dominance of politics in the Bluegrass State. The GOP controls both Senate seats and has a 4-2 majority of the Kentucky House delegation. In the 2002 race, which he won with 65 percent of the vote, McConnell outspent his opponent by more than 2-1. In the weeks after their November victory, Democrats were dealt a few set backs. Many in the party hoped state Auditor Crit Luallen would enter the race. But she announced in December she had no plans to run. A week later, state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who had set up an exploratory committee for the Senate race, decided to run for an open state House seat. In January, businessmen Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford entered the race. Lunsford, who came in second place in the 2007 Democratic gubernatorial primary, defeated Fischer in the eight-candidate May primary.
Maine. Although GOP Sen. Susan Collins has increased her popularity in a Democratic-leaning state, her re-election in 2008 might prove to be more difficult than her 2002 race, which she won 58-42 percent. Collins pledged to serve only two terms when she was elected in 1996, and Democrats can be expected to hit her on rescinding that pledge and seeking a third term. Collins will also face voters during a presidential election in a state that the Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, easily carried in 2004. Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, who had been actively preparing to run for the Senate for several months, filed paperwork in May to launch a campaign against Collins. He cited differences on the Iraq war and tax and spending priorities. Democrats have said that they would focus on drawing "a clear connection to Susan Collins and the Bush administration." Collins, who is ranking member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, will have the support of the panel's chairman, Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn. Lieberman in April pledged to back his friend in the contest as she endorsed him after he failed to win the Democratic Senate primary in 2006.
Minnesota. Emboldened by the 2006 victory of Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar over GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy, Democrats say they are eager to claim the state's other Senate seat with a strong 2008 challenge of Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. Coleman, the former St. Paul mayor, won his seat in 2002 under unusual circumstances when he defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale by 50-47 percent. That matchup occurred after Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash 11 days before the election and Democrats turned to Mondale as their candidate. Coleman acknowledged he is a target in 2008, but said his work ethic and the state's electorate can carry him to re-election. Comedian Al Franken announced he planned to run last year. A New York City native who grew up in the suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul, Franken raised about $800,000 through his Midwest Values leadership PAC and supported Democratic Rep. Tim Walz's upset victory over GOP Rep. Gil Gutknecht in 2006. Franken's biggest obstacle to the Democratic nomination was attorney Mike Ciresi, who unsuccessfully sought the nomination in 2000. Ciresi's ability to self fund made him a formidable candidate. Ciresi withdrew earlier this year, leaving Franken with light opposition. Franken secured the party endorsement amid concerns about controversial things he wrote in the 1980s and '90s. Ciresi has left open the possibility of rejoining the race. Also, former independent Gov. Jesse Ventura and former Sen. Dean Barkley, who was appointed by Ventura to fill Wellstone's term, are considering bids.
Mississippi. The Magnolia State has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the long reign of Sen. James O. Eastland, an obstacle to civil rights as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, ended 28 years ago. His replacement, GOP Sen. Thad Cochran, 69, who announced his plans to seek another term is a shoo-in for re-election this year. Four years ago reports circulated he might not go for a fifth term. Instead he ran and won in 2002 with 85 percent of the vote. In November, Cochran officially announced he would seek another term. Later in the month, GOP Sen. Trent Lott abruptly said he would step down before the end of the year. The move will set up a special election this November for the remainder of Lott's term. Republican Gov. Haley Barbour appointed Rep. Roger Wicker to fill the seat until the special election. Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, a Democrat, is running in the nonpartisan election. Former Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows withdrew his candidacy in February. Cochran will face former state Rep. Erik Fleming.
Nebraska. After months of uncertainty about his political future, Sen. Chuck Hagel, announced in September he would not seek a third term. The maverick Republican, who also said he did not plan to run for any office next year, kept many guessing as to whether he would run for president, seek re-election or simply retire from politics. With Hagel's decision, speculation focused on a campaign battle between Agriculture Secretary Johanns and former Democrat Sen. Bob Kerrey -- both Nebraska political heavyweights and Washington veterans. While Johanns announced his candidacy, Kerrey decided to remain as president of the New School in New York City. Democrats suffered another setback when Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey announced in November he would not run. Johanns appeared to have a competitive primary with GOP state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who had already entered the race before Hagel announced his plans. However, Bruning withdrew in November and backed Johanns. Former GOP Rep. Hal Daub, who officially jumped into the race in September, announced eleven days later he was ending his bid. He said the fundraising requirement "is a mountain too steep for us to climb." Scott Kleeb, a photogenic, horse-riding ranch hand who lost a bid for the open 3rd District seat to Republican Rep. Adrian Smith by 10 points, announced his candidacy in February. Industrialist Tony Raimondo, who describes himself as a moderate, also joined the race as a Democrat in February. He switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat in December. Kleeb handily defeated Raimondo and will face Johanns in November.
New Hampshire. In recent years, this state has stood out in rock-ribbed Republican contrast to increasingly Democratic Vermont to the west and "Taxachusetts" to the south. However, after a 2006 campaign where both of the state's Republican House members were ousted, the party feels they have a good opportunity to topple freshman Sen. John Sununu, the son and namesake of a former New Hampshire governor who was White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. Three Democrats -- Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett, and Jay Buckey, a Dartmouth Medical School professor and former astronaut -- entered the race. However, the looming question for most of the year was whether Democratic former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, who narrowly lost to Sununu in 2002, would seek a rematch. Shaheen remained silent about her plans until she announced in September she would step down as director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics and run for the seat. Many Democrats viewed her as the party's strongest candidate. After Shaheen made her announcement, Marchand and Swett withdrew and endorsed Shaheen. Buckey, who remained in the race, withdrew in February.
New Mexico. Five-term Republican Sen. Pete Domenici had been on everybody's list of possibly retiring senators. In October, he said he would not seek re-election because of progression of an incurable brain disorder. Before he announced his plans, Domenici had become embroiled in a controversy surrounding the removal of New Mexico's U.S. attorney, David Iglesias. Both Domenici and Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, long considered Domenici's heir apparent, have acknowledged making contact with Iglesias just before the 2006 midterm election to ask about the status of indictments in a case involving a former Democratic official in New Mexico. They contend their contacts were only inquiries. Iglesias, who was later fired, told House and Senate committees in March he had felt pressure from Republican lawmakers to act in the case. Soon after Domenici bowed out, Wilson announced her candidacy. Rep. Tom Udall, who has been frequently mentioned as a potential Democratic contender, initially took his name out of the running. He later entered the race after urging from party leaders and activists. Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who announced his candidacy soon after Domenici's announcement, withdrew from the race in December. On the Republican side, Wilson and GOP Rep. Steve Pearce waged a spirited battle for the nomination. Pearce, a conservative, won the backing of the Club for Growth. Domenici, who had earlier pledge to stay neutral endorsed Wilson on the weekend before the primary. However, Pearce ended up narrowly winning.
North Carolina. GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole is a favorite for re-election despite a disappointing 2006 election for Republicans. Under Dole's watch as chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans lost six incumbents and the majority. Dole, who turns 72 this year, has said she plans to run and has begun raising money for re-election. However, observers say they are watching for a possible retirement. One North Carolina Republican operative said the national losses are unlikely to matter. "I don't think she's affected at all [by] the NRSC," the operative said. Dole remains a popular statewide figure, but the operative added that some party activists and fundraisers have grumbled about her absence from the state. The Democrats' strongest challenger would be two-term Gov. Mike Easley, who is prohibited by term limits from seeking another term in 2008. Easley has said he is not interested in running. Although the state tends to vote Republican in federal elections, North Carolina Democrats control the governor's office, most statewide offices, the state Legislature and a majority of the House delegation. In April, Rep. Brad Miller said he was considering a bid. However, he decided against running in June. Jim Neal, an investment banker, became the first Democrat to enter the race. He acknowledged he was gay in October. A week later, state Sen. Kay Hagan, who had ruled out a bid earlier, said she would join the race. Hagan easily defeated Neal in the May primary.
Oklahoma. Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe is expected to seek re-election to a third full term and will be favored to win it. Although he has not officially said he is running, if Republicans regain control of the Senate in 2008 he could be in line to become chairman of the Armed Services Committee, a long-time personal goal. Inhofe has never gotten less than 55 percent of the vote in his three previous Senate elections, and easily defeated former Democratic Gov. David Walters 57-36 percent in 2002. Another factor to his advantage is that Republicans have won all but three of the last 15 Senate elections in the state, the exception being the three terms won by former Democratic Sen. David Boren. Inhofe won a special election in 1994 to succeed Boren after the latter resigned to become president of the University of Oklahoma. There are prominent Democrats who would be credible challengers. But if they have aspirations, Gov. Brad Henry and Rep. Dan Boren, David Boren's son, are more likely to wait until 2010 to see if GOP Sen. Tom Coburn decides to step down. In August, Democratic state Sen. Andrew Rice, a 34-year-old Harvard Divinity School graduate, filed for the seat.
Oregon. The 2006 election was so devastating for Republicans in Oregon that it all but invited Democrats to paint a big target on GOP Sen. Gordon Smith in 2008. During the 2006 cycle, Oregon Republicans nominated a centrist candidate for governor, Ron Saxton, who raised big bucks but was still clobbered by Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski. Democrats also captured the state House and now control both legislative chambers. "Clearly, Smith is vulnerable, that much is clear," declared state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Edmunson. "He is the only Republican senator left on the continental West Coast." Democrats initially struggled to find a high-profile candidate. Portland-based Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer had indicated some interest in a statewide race. However, in May, he said he would pass on running to remain in the House. After saying he was not interested earlier, Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio, in April told the Eugene Register-Guard he was reluctantly considering a bid following encouragement from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. After consideration, he again said he would not run. The Democrats' recruiting luck changed last August when state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who had earlier met with DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer of New York, announced he would run. Merkley made clear in his announcement he would plan to try to tie Smith to President Bush. Democratic activist Steve Novick entered the race earlier in 2007 and said he would make Smith's early support of the war an issue. Smith said he thinks voters appreciate his willingness to part way with Republicans on some high-profile issues as well as his close working relationship with Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden, who first won his Senate seat by narrowly defeating Smith in a 1995 special election. Merkley fought off a tough challenge from Novick and won a tight May primary.
South Carolina. First-term Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has amassed a sizeable war chest for his re-election bid. State Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson called South Carolina "the reddest of red states" where Republicans swept eight of the nine statewide offices in 2006. Graham biggest challenge was with his own party. Republican National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon announced he would run in December. Witherspoon took aim at Graham for his support of comprehensive immigration reform. Although Graham has a solid conservative voting record in Washington, he has a reputation of straying from the party line. However, Graham easily defeated Witherspoon in June. Two little known candidates, attorney Michael Cone and pilot Bob Conley competed for the Democratic nomination. Conley narrowly won.
Tennessee. Tennessee used to send Democrats such as former Sens. James Sasser and Al Gore to Washington. But as he prepares to seek re-election, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander can take heart in the latest affirmation of the GOP's post-1994 dominance of Senate elections in the state -- former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker's victory over Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. in 2006's slugfest to fill the seat being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Frist. While Democrats swept marquee Senate races elsewhere in the country, Corker prevailed against a dynamic and well-financed opponent with name recognition. While Democrats had Ford as their standard bearer last year, this time they are have had a difficultly finding a candidate. Businessman Mike McWherter announced in November he would not run, citing family considerations. McWherter, the son of former Democratic Gov. Ned McWherter, would have brought name recognition and wealth if he opted to join the race. In December former state Democratic Party Chairman Bob Tuke said he would not run. However, he reconsidered and announced in February he was running.
Texas. Although Republican Sen. John Cornyn is generally viewed as a strong incumbent, a well-financed Democratic effort to unseat him in 2008 cannot be ruled out. Noting that he has an approval rating in the state of only about 43 percent, Democrats say Cornyn's acerbic brand of conservatism has turned off a lot of Texas voters, and they accuse him of flip-flopping on the border fence issue. Cornyn voted for the 700-mile barrier along the Mexican border, then questioned whether construction would be a "practical use" of federal money since it would not solve the problem of illegal immigration. In addition, Democrats contend the growth of the Hispanic population in Texas has rendered Cornyn vulnerable. Whatever his liabilities might be, the odds of Cornyn winning a second term are rated quite good. His staunch support for conservative federal judicial nominees and opposition to gay marriage as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee have resonated with core conservative voters in what is now a solidly Republican state. Attorney Mikal Watts, who criticized Cornyn over his allegiance to President Bush and the Iraq war, formed an exploratory committee in June. He pumped millions of his own money into the campaign. However, in October, Watts abruptly withdrew and Noriega won the primary. While he lacks the personal wealth of Watts, Democrats hope Noriega's service in the National Guard and Legislature make him an attractive candidate.
Virginia. GOP Sen. John Warner's decision not to seek re-election in late August set off a primary and general election scramble to replace him. While Warner had said he was undecided about re-election until his announcement, his 1st quarter fundraising totals already began continue to fuel retirement speculation. Warner raised $500 in the first three months of the year, but had $667,000 on hand. The vacancy will force Republicans to have to defend a seat in a state where moderate Democrats have run competitively in recent elections. A few weeks after the announcement, former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner, who in 1996 held John Warner to a 52 percent victory, announced his intention to run for the seat. Warner touted himself as a bipartisan problem-solver. The Republican field was initially less clear. It seemed likely Rep. Tom Davis, a skilled politician who has long expressed interest in a statewide bid, and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who ended his presidential bid earlier this year, were headed for a nomination fight. However, after the GOP's state central committee decided to select their nominee by holding a convention rather than a primary, Davis announced he would not run. Many viewed the nomination convention process as an advantage to Gilmore, who is more conservative than Davis. In January, Republican Del. Bob Marshall announced his candidacy arguing he has a stronger record on opposing abortion than Gilmore. Marshall surprised many by making the state convention race close. Gilmore won the nod by less than a percentage point.
Wyoming. Consider the strength of Republican Sen. Michael Enzi's position as he seeks a third term in 2008 in the sprawling but thinly populated state. He won re-election four years ago with 73 percent of the vote against a Democrat who raised only $8,000, as opposed to his $884,000. The state is among the most conservative and Republican in the nation. It has only two counties that regularly vote Democratic. The home state of Vice President Cheney, Wyoming gave President Bush 69 percent in 2004 and has not backed a Democrat for president since the 1964 landslide for Lyndon Johnson. Yet the state's most popular politician right now might be a Democrat -- Gov. Dave Freudenthal -- who just won a second term with 70 percent of the vote. Indeed, while Wyoming voters typically send Republicans to Washington, Democrats have occupied the governor's mansion for all but eight years since 1975. As of now, however, Enzi is in no danger of facing a challenge from Freudenthal. "At this point I think Dave is just focused on being governor," said a Freudenthal campaign spokesman, adding that he did not know of any Democrat currently planning a race against the senator. Attention in June focused intensely on the other Senate seat following the death of Republican Sen. Craig Thomas. Freudenthal selected Republican state Sen. John Barrasso, an orthopedic surgeon, to fill the seat until the next election. The appointment means both Barrasso and Enzi will be on the ballot in 2008. Casper city councilman and former state Sen. Keith Goodenough, a Democrat, announced his plans to challenge Barrasso.