Dems Must Protect This House

The $35M in ad time the DCCC has reserved in 31 CDs shows how the cmte can use its huge cash edge to play in lots of seats. But it also shows how many it must defend.

-- It's too early to draw any conclusions from this list, which will likely expand soon. But it gives a sense of how tough a challenge the NRCC faces this fall. The DCCC has reserved nearly $14M of time in GOP open seats alone. Currently, the NRCC is sitting on $6.5M in CoH. Whatever moves the NRCC (or its sympathetic 527s) makes, the DCCC will be able to match it.

-- But this list also shows that Dems will be playing defense as well. In that sense, '08 won't be a replay of '06. Then, the DCCC spent just $3M of its indie expenditures to support incumbents. So far in '08, the DCCC's reserved $11M in ad time for incumbents. That's nearly one-third of the $35M.

-- The amount the DCCC must spend to help save incumbent CDs gives you an idea why Dems have had to open up the playing field (which they've done with success). But these ad reservations aren't permanent. And in order for Dems to have another great year, some of the cash now directed at incumbents must shift to GOP targets.