Love Me/Love Me Not

Fortunately for the GOP, its best bet to hold AL-02, state Rep. Jay Love (R), emerged from a divisive primary victorious last p.m., and GOPers are upbeat about their chances vs. Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D). But Dems see lots of comparisons to the GOP disaster of MS-01. Who's right?

-- Reading excerpts from Love's (R) victory speech last p.m. gave us a flashback to Greg Davis's (R) failed MS-01 bid. Love's message (like Davis' against Dem Travis Childers) appears to rely heavily on labeling the socially conservative Bright as a liberal Nancy Pelosi clone. Voters in MS didn't buy that argument against an unknown Dem. Will they buy it against a popular and well-known mayor?

-- But unlike MS-01, geography won't play as big a role here. Both candidates are from the CD's population base (Montgomery), and Love expects to tamp down Bright's advantage there. The primary also gave him the opportunity to visit the rural "Wiregrass" region of the CD, where state Sen. Harri Anne Smith (R) hailed from. While he lost that region last p.m., an endorsement from Smith may go a long way to close any lingering primary wounds.

-- This CD gave Pres. Bush 67% in '04, and Love starts out with an even bigger base than GOPers did in MS-01. But there are pitfalls for him in this race, and if Bright can exploit them as well as Childers did, he's got a good chance for an upset.