The Biggert Picture

If you're looking for CDs where a GOPer could be surprised this fall, check out IL, where Obama-related turnout may jumble the normal equation. IL-13 has gotten some buzz lately, forcing Judy Biggert (R) to release a poll showing her up 25 points over businessman Scott Harper (D).

-- Harper's camp says the CD is much more friendly to a Dem than Bill Foster's (D) 14th CD, and he was successful earlier this year. In fact, demographically, Biggert's seat looks more like the very marginal 10th CD, where Mark Kirk (R) resides, than the more rural 14th. They also claim to have a very strong grassroots operation to help build off of Obama's expected surge.

-- But Biggert's no slouch. She's developed a moderate profile that will help her distance herself from her party's establishment. That profile should help her hold many GOPers who will cross over and support Obama. And while Harper's camp claims voters are growing weary of Biggert's job performance, she claims a 67% rating on that score in her poll.

-- Harper has an extremely tough job in convincing voters to fire Biggert. But if there's a year it could happen, it'll be this one.