Is This So Luet-Icrous?

Dems have been excited over their chances in MO-09 for awhile, and they confirmed those feelings by putting the CD on its Red-to-Blue list last week. Does it belong there?

-- With its special election victories earlier this cycle, it's getting harder to completely write-off Dem chances in conservative CDs like this. A moderate Dem in the mold of ex-Rep. Harold Volkmer (D) could compete very well in this socially-conservative CD. But does one exist in this race? Many point to ex-MO House Speaker Steve Gaw (D) as this candidate, but despite his rural roots and populist appeal, he's pro-choice. So is state Rep. Judy Baker (D), who's earned EMILY's List support.

-- And the GOPers aren't total disasters, either. Sure, many will argue that they're no Kenny Hulshof, but state Rep. Bob Onder (R) and ex-state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) are acceptable candidates who have shown the ability to raise money and to put some of their own cash into the race as well. And both are social conservatives who fit the CD well.

-- After nominees are chosen tonight, it'll be easier to handicap this race. But for Dems to have a shot, they'll need to move the debate to one that focuses on the economy, and off of social issues, where they may be at a distinct disadvantage.