Take Me With You, John

ST. PAUL -- When John McCain accepts his party's nom here 9/4, he'll effectively wipe AZ off the map for Dems. But GOP candidates in GOP-leaning CDs like AZ-01 and AZ-05, where primaries are being held today, won't have as much luck this fall.

-- In AZ-01, '02 candidate Sydney Hay (R) should skate by in her primary but will face a dangerous opponent in likely Dem nominee Ann Kirkpatrick. Retiring Rick Renzi (R) has always been fortunate to face more liberal, flawed candidates in holding this conservative CD. But Kirkpatrick's been airing TV ads touting her law and order creds and support from a popular local sheriff. If those ads create an impression on voters, it's going to be very hard for Hay, who doesn't have much cash, to paint Kirkpatrick into a liberal box.

-- In the GOP race to take on Harry Mitchell (D-AZ 05), ex-Maricopa Co. Treas. Dave Schweikert (R) and lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith (R) have fought a, yes, bitter battle. Schweikert has questioned Bitter Smith's social conservative bona fides, while Bitter Smith sent out a mailer questioning Schweikert's tenure as county treas. It's unlikely, but the fighting could open the door for lobbyist Jim Ogsbury (R), who's spent $245K on the race, to sneak through. But the ultimate winner will face an incumbent who, while he has his flaws, also has $1.3M in the bank. That'll be tough to overcome.