From The Hotline Latest Edition for Wednesday, May 14,2008

CLINTON

And So It Went. Like Mick Jagger Reading "War and Peace."

Wed. May 14, 2008


Hillary Clinton "won a landslide" 67-26% victory in the WV primary 5/13, "renewing doubts about Barack Obama's prospects in states with large concentrations of white, working-class voters." Despite calls from some leading Dems "to stop going after Obama for the good of the party," Clinton and her camp 5/13
sought to make the WV "results another referendum on Obama's electability in 'swing states' that will be crucial" for Dems in Nov (Helman, Boston Globe, 5/14).

Following her "convincing victory," Clinton "delivered a defiant speech in which she insisted that the outcome" of the nomination "remained very much in doubt." Clinton, at her victory rally in Charleston: "I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard. I can win this nomination if you decide I should."

Clinton "also reiterated her argument that she is the better candidate to win back" the WH in Nov. Clinton: "I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate. The White House is won in the swing states and I am winning the swing states" (Cillizza, "The Fix," washingtonpost.com, 5/13).

•Salon's Madden writes, Clinton's speech "stood out for how specifically it was aimed" at "the rapidly dwindling number of uncommitted" Dem superdelegates -- the only people who still have the power to make her the nominee (5/14).

•CNN's J. King: "She sent a pretty powerful message to the people yet to vote, and especially the Democratic superdelegates -- look again. Take a time out, go back and look at the map. I think I'm a stronger candidate for November" (5/13).

•ABC's Stephanopoulos: "She's running what they call the Eleanor Roosevelt strategy. She's talking to all of the women out there who have been supporting her, saying she's going to stay in the race for them. Part of the rationale for the Clintons right now is that they believe that it will actually be easier to convince those women to go over and vote for Barack Obama later on if they don't feel like Senator Clinton has been pushed out of the process early" ("GMA," 5/14).


The Talking Points

Clinton strategist Geoff Garin said Clinton advisers hope that WV's primary will undo some of the impact of NC and IN, "which dramatically cemented a perception" that the race is over. Garin: "It's our strong view that Senator Clinton did not get enough credit for achieving a come-from-behind victory in Indiana, where Senator Obama had a ton of advantages. But now the West Virginia victory brings the question of electability back to where it was in the wake of Pennsylvania" (Balz, Washington Post, 5/14).

New York Observer's Kornacki writes, the Clinton camp "is now bound, for as long as it remains in operation, to try to sell the notion that there is some magical connection between winning" WV and the presidency (5/14).

Clinton comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "Let's see what happens when people wake up tomorrow, they open their paper, Clinton landslide in West Virginia, a key swing state, a state that Democrats must win in November against John McCain, a state that Hillary Clinton has pledged and promised to win against John McCain. ... People are going to pause. They're going to look and see what happens in the upcoming states. We're looking forward to Kentucky and Oregon and the upcoming states. We've got to do well. We think we'll do well" (CNN, 5/13).

Wolfson, in response to being told the math doesn't add up for Clinton: "Let's talk about the math of a 40-point win in West Virginia. That's a lot of math. It's quite a victory. People in West Virginia were told
that the race was over ... and yet they came out in droves. ... We are going to take our case to the voters in the upcoming states, to the superdelegates this morning. ... We are looking forward to the next month" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/14).

Clinton "is no longer resting her candidacy on the delegate count. She hopes to persuade party leaders, who hold the balance of power, that she would be the more electable candidate against McCain, based on her support among white, blue-collar voters who have not embraced Obama's candidacy in the same way as black, more affluent and better-educated voters" (Barabak/Fiore, Los Angeles Times, 5/14).


Unless Hillary Disappears While Vacationing In Aruba, We're Finished

Despite her WV victory, the consensus in the media today is that the win means little, because Obama has already effectively sewn up the nomination:

•While the "thorough drubbing" in WV "will undoubtedly sting Obama, Clinton continues to trail him in pledged delegates and superdelegates, and her campaign continues to bleed money" (Parker, ABC News, 5/14).

•With Obama "still solidly" ahead of Clinton in the delegate fight, the WV results are "unlikely to adversely affect" Obama's chances of winning the nomination (Healy, New York Times, 5/14).

•The WV primary "did little if anything to knock Obama off stride as he approaches the delegate totals needed to give him the nomination" (Babington/Woodward, AP, 5/14).

•Clinton's "convincing" win in WV "won't change the state's superdelegate count," as WV's "remaining five superdelegates are still undeclared" (Stump, Charleston Daily Mail, 5/14).

•ABC's Stephanopoulos: "It's a big boost for Senator Clinton, a big psychological boost. It's like a shot of Red Bull to get her through the next couple of weeks. The problem is, it doesn't change the fundamental math" ("GMA," 5/14).

•Washington Post's Milbank writes, "If there is importance in the results of the primary" in WV, "the press corps isn't letting on" (5/14).

•Politico's Simon writes, Clinton's win in WV has to "mean something. Except the press doesn't think so. The press is unimpressed. This may be the first time in election history in which the press has withdrawn from a race before the candidate" (5/14).


Hush, Little HillRaisers, Don't Say A Word

"Even on a day of triumph" 5/13, Clinton "was forced to shore up support with a top labor supporter, meeting quietly in Washington with worried AFSCME head Gerald McEntee, who wanted her to explain her plan going forward, according to people close to both."

Clinton and her staff "will face more of the same" today at her DC mansion during a series of meetings with donors and congressional superdelegates eager to learn her plans for camp's final 3 weeks. Clinton finance chair Alan Patricof: "There's 40 to 45 of us coming down [from New York] and I think it will be substantive question-and-answer session full of candor."

Patricof, on fundraising: "It's getting harder to raise money. The number of people you can go after is shrinking after 17 months." A DNC member who raises money for Clinton put it more bluntly: "Her money people are starting to say 'fold it' and she's needs to get them back in line" (Thrush, Newsday, 5/14).

New York Daily News' Bazinet and Saul also report, Clinton will be in DC today, "making her case on a spate of national TV news programs. She is also expected to powwow today with top donors and influential backers," where an insider "said she will appeal for more money and continued support for remaining in the race. At the meeting, Clinton will stress her strength in general election swing states and point to her strong showing" in WV "as proof" she can win (5/14).


Happy Faced Emoticon, Followed By "$$$$"

Clinton seized on the WV results 5/13 pm "in an area where she needs particular help: fundraising." Roughly $20Min debt, her "campaign sent a text message to supporters' cell phones less than an hour after the polls closed, hailing the victory and urging them to donate money at her Web site. A similar pitch arrived by e-mail two minutes later" (New York Times, 5/14). Clinton, in the e-mail: "With your help, I'm going to carry the energy of tonight's victory into the next contests in Kentucky and Oregon... And just as always, I'll be depending on you to share every step of this journey with me. You have worked your heart out, put yourself on the line for what you believe in, and given generously. And I'm not about to turn my back on you" (release, 5/13).


Running On Starbucks And Highly Implausible Scenarios

Clinton celebrated a blowout victory over Obama "last night, as enthusiastic supporters sought to help deflect mounting pressures for her to exit the race." Some supporters in WV, whose voters went to the polls in record numbers 5/13, "brushed aside calls for Clinton to quit and described implausible scenarios that they said could propel her into the lead" (Nitkin, Baltimore Sun, 5/14).

Her "last hopes hinge" on counting the disputed delegates from MI and FL, "which were disallowed by the party for holding primaries earlier than the rules allow, together with convincing enough superdelegates that she is more electable. But both prospects are increasingly remote" (Calmes, Wall Street Journal, 5/14).


Okay, Chingachgook

The subject of suspending the campaign has been broached at Clinton HQ in recent days, but Bill Clinton, for one, is opposed. Senior adviser: "They don't like quitters" (Wall Street Journal, 5/14).

"If there was an upside for Clinton, it was in polls showing that more than two-thirds of Democrats now believe that she should stay in the race until the last primaries" (Saltonstall, New York Daily News, 5/14).

CNN's Malveaux: "I was on the phone with ... an adviser to the Clinton camp, and they put it this way: They said there's nobody in the bunker, in the inner circle, telling her to give up. They said, if she gives up now, there's a red carpet that's rolled out for the Obama folks, welcoming her demise. ... He said this is Hillary Clinton first, party second. They believe that they have time to basically make amends that need to be made" (5/13).

Clinton supporter/PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), asked if he's backing away from his support of Clinton by saying he'll support Obama whole-heartedly if he's the nominee: "Not at all. I'm the last of the Mohicans" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/14).


Next Up?

Speaking on the sidelines at Clinton's victory celebration, HRC chair Terry McAuliffe offered insight on where the camp will focus in the next few weeks. McAuliffe: "Obviously Kentucky and Puerto Rico are the two big population centers coming up" (Phillips, "Washington Wire," 5/13).

Louisville Courier-Journal's Gerth: "I think what you're seeing in West Virginia tonight, it's likely that you're going to see something real similar in Kentucky next week. Polls show that Clinton is up anywhere 27 to 35 points right now, and things don't look like they're changing too much. ... There are a lot of Clinton Democrats in Kentucky. Only two times in the past seven presidential elections has a Democrat carried Kentucky in the general election, and both times it was Bill Clinton who did that" ("On the Record," FNC, 5/13).

National Journal/NBC's Memoli, writes her schedule takes her to SD 5/15, with stops in OR and KY to follow. She also has fundraisers scheduled in DC and LA on successive days (5/13).


Pulls Himself Up By His Timberland Boots Straps

"Undaunted by delegate counts indicating his wife's chances of winning" the nomination are slim, Bill Clinton told more than 800 people gathered at Rogue Community College 5/13 that HRC "would spark the economy to life with a focus on environmental jobs, energy-wise vehicles and wind farms" in Eastern OR.

Showing his "command of regional issues, Clinton said the Bush energy bill had 'stripped Oregon' of its right to decide whether and where it will put liquid natural gas lines and laid the blame for termination of county timber payments on Bush, who 'broke a 100-year-old promise' to compensate counties for lost taxes on timberlands."

Clinton's speech in RCC's outdoor concert bowl was one of several stops for him in recent days (Darling, Southern Oregon Mail Tribune, 5/14). 5/13 marked "the last of three straight" for Clinton in rural areas of OR (AP, 5/14).


The Pick Me Up Pickup Truck

"Huddled beneath a colorful patchwork of umbrellas, a dripping and drizzled crowd" of 3K endured the rain 5/13 pm for a chance to hear B. Clinton speak at an outdoor rally in Kalispell, MT. Clinton opened his remarks with the news of out WV, saying "it's a great night."

His speech, "which was 'abbreviated; by the drizzle and delivered from the bed of a pickup truck, followed a well-worn formula from this long campaign trail. Clinton focused on ending the war in Iraq, on health care and education, on energy independence and global warming," and the economy (Jamison, Missoulian, 5/14).


Somewhere In A Territory Faraway, Jimmy Buffett Is Jamming Out

Chelsea Clinton "is back in Puerto Rico stumping for her mother." Campaign staffers say about 250 people in the "coastal town of Luquillo thronged around" Chelsea, who later traveled to her mother's San Juan campaign HQ, "urging supporters to keep up the pace" in advance of the island's 6/1 primary. "She also was expected to stump at the island's biggest shopping mall. It is the beginning of a three-day swing through the U.S. territory" (5/14).

Clinton spokesperson Philippe Reines: "Chelsea spent the day in Puerto Rico as part of a 3 day trip to the island. At the moment WV was called she was campaigning in downtown San Juan, marching behind a drum and whistle band that she met last time she was here... The crowd just went wild. She's now waiting to watch her mom with PR supporters at a restaurant/bar called Margaritas" (Memoli, National Journal/NBC, 5/14).


Who Understood This Guy In The First Place?!

Clinton supporter/Dem strategist James Carville was in the "Situation Room" last night to discuss his prediction that Obama would secure the Dem nod.

Carville: "What I said is that ... Senator Obama was the likely nominee, which I think everybody in a non-lobotomized world agrees with. I mean, it would be kind of ridiculous not to say that. I certainly said he was the certain nominee. I can't imagine how anybody would find that revelation shocking, but that is what I said in South Carolina."

More: "But I think Senator Clinton is entitled to stay in the race as long as she wants to. I think her supporters like me want to see her do as well as she possibly can. ... I don't why it makes news to say Obama is the likely nominee. Of course, he is. The chances for him to be the nominee are greater than Senator Clinton right now" (CNN, 5/13).


She Feng Shuied The Senate

Clinton "was the original impetus" behind the Senate Dem "war room," a "legacy the candidate does not mention on the campaign trail but one that has significantly changed the upper chamber." The war room is the name for the communications center that Senate Maj Leader Harry Reid created after the "disastrous" '04 election.

Clinton "was one of the first and most forceful advocates of establishing a campaign-style communications center in the Senate." B. Clinton "pioneered the use of a rapid-response campaign center during his successful" '92 run, chronicled in the documentary "The War Room."

Clinton first proposed a Senate war room while Tom Daschle was the Senate Dem leader, "but the soft-spoken" Daschle "declined to implement her idea." Reid, however, "embraced the idea immediately after Clinton suggested it to him during his campaign" for Dem leader in Nov '04 (Bolton, The Hill, 5/14).


From Frat Boy To Chris Matthews

In a Boston Globe op-ed, Michal Regunberg writes, when the history of the '08 campaign is written, we may find that Gloria Steinem was right. In a column in the New York Times that appeared between IA and NH she wrote, "Gender is probably the most restricting force in American life, whether the question is who must be in the kitchen or who could be in the White House."

Fast forward 6 months and "Steinem looks downright prescient. We didn't know then just how biased the media," who "have had a tough time with Clinton and criticized everything from her pantsuits to her laugh," would be against a woman running for president.

Privately, some Dem leaders "would probably acknowledge the sexism that still pervades society and politics but is not talked about. We can more easily discuss historic racism and congratulate ourselves on how far we have come than we can begin to acknowledge that sexism still thrives, especially in politics."

"All this sexism is being stoked by the media, which have admitted their errors even as they continue to repeat them almost daily in the coverage of the campaign... Despite the sharp elbows and strong arms that are pushing Clinton out, the race will end when the voting is over" (5/14).

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