By Chuck Todd, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, April 5, 2006

The theme running through nearly every story written about this cycle’s battle for control of the Senate is that the Democratic Party has cleaned the GOP’s clock in recruiting.

In the big picture, that’s very true, as Democrats have secured their first- or second-choice nominee in just about every seat they've wanted to target. And in many cases, they've cleared primary fields. Democrats even have plausible challengers in seats they didn’t really plan to target in Nevada and Virginia. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., deserves the bragging rights.

	The NRSC’s recruitment efforts haven't been the disaster we described earlier, despite being forced to settle for its third or fourth choice in a number of races.
	Chuck Todd's 2006 Race Rankings Every month for the rest of the election cycle, get an early line on WH 2008, as well as the latest rankings, commentary and analysis on all '06 Senate, House and governor races. [an error occurred while processing this directive]

But aside from the Rep. Katherine Harris (R) debacle in Florida, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s recruitment efforts haven't been the disaster once portrayed by folks like us. Granted, the GOP was forced to settle for it's third or fourth choice in a number of races. But the more we’ve seen of some of these candidates, the more we’re convinced that if the playing field were level this year, Republicans would have a fighting chance to pick off a couple of Democrat-held seats.

Four candidates in particular have caught our attention: Mike McGavick in Washington, Mike Bouchard in Michigan, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska and John Raese in West Virginia.

What’s intriguing about all four of these Republicans is that none are traditional Republican senatorial recruits (at least compared with the 2002 and 2004 classes). Instead, they were the second, third or fourth choices of the GOP establishment in races against incumbent Democratic senators.

The cream of this crop is McGavick. He’s got a pragmatic streak in him that suits him well for the Senate. Partisans don’t like admitting it, but pragmatists make the Senate tick. (Perhaps that’s why senators make awful presidential candidates: being a "pragmatist" is not a quality that plays well in partisan primaries.)

McGavick faces Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., who squeaked into the chamber in 2000 and has had a hard time getting out of the senior Sen. Patty Murray’s (D) shadow. If this election were held on an island -- as in, sans the national context -- we’d put our money on McGavick. And although McGavick argues that sometimes national waves take a while to make their way out to Washington State, we’re not sure how he can pull off the upset when there’s an "R" next to his name on the ballot. President Bush’s job-approval rating hangs five to seven points lower there than it does nationally. Still, McGavick knows exactly what he’s facing; he was the strategist who helped orchestrate former Sen. Slade Gorton’s (R) comeback in the state in 1988, the same year the national party lost the state in the presidential race. It’s also possible there is some Dino Rossi payback chit that can be put to use.

After McGavick, Nebraskans have a very solid Republican recruit in Pete Ricketts. He still has a primary to deal with that could, of course, cut his potential for stardom short. But something tells us that $4-5 million (the amount of money it appears he is on pace to spend in the primary) is enough to buy a primary victory in the Cornhusker State.

Once in the general, Ricketts might be the only one with a message that gives him even a remote shot at knocking off the elusive Sen. Ben Nelson (D). Ricketts essentially plans to go after Nelson’s strength (he’s a non-ideological pragmatist) and try to make it a weakness. For instance, Ricketts will try to claim that Nelson’s push for Nebraska pork isn’t leadership. It’s not the easiest message to sell, but running against Nelson isn’t easy, and Ricketts seems genuine in his ability to sell the message.

As for Michigan, Mike Bouchard makes our list of intriguing recruits because of his title, "sheriff." In the current climate, where an adjective like "corruption" is one political leaders need to avoid, and "competence" is one they need to have, there isn’t a better title than "sheriff." Don’t let the title fool you, Bouchard is more of a professional pol than any of the others we’ve profiled. Oakland County sheriff is an elected post, and Bouchard’s held elected office for more than a decade.

Still, the law enforcement background could appeal to voters. Bouchard tells a good story about taking his staff down to New Orleans during the initial Katrina aftermath (as did a lot of law enforcement folks around the country) and coming away with new disaster-planning ideas, which sounds like a 30-second ad. But it positions Bouchard on the correct side of an issue that may concern voters the most -- competency. Although Bouchard still has to battle the national GOP baggage, the enormous amount of money Republican Dick DeVos is spending to unseat Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm may help him. Frankly, of the 2000 Democratic Senate class, Bouchard's incumbent foe, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), always seemed like the one in the most precarious position. It shouldn’t be surprising if her re-election gets tough.

The last candidate on our "not too shabby" GOP recruiting list is West Virginia’s John Raese. We highlight Raese less because of his own personal biography (which includes more political defeats than victories), and more because he’s not a complete gadfly -- which in West Virginia Republican circles is an accomplishment. Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd doesn’t have to do much to win re-election, but he does need to meet some minimum requirements, a la former Sen. Strom Thurmond, R-S.C., in ’96. Raese is a plausible candidate enough that if Byrd stumbles badly during the campaign, the Republican can win. Raese appears to be going about this the right way -- he's stayed away from Byrd-bashing thus far (something the NRSC would be wise to stop doing) and instead has laid the groundwork to suggest he’s not part of the bizarro-wing of the West Virginia GOP.

It's more than likely that none of these four will win, especially if the landscape remains as it is today: slanted a great deal toward the Democrats. And frankly, we’ve seen solid recruiting classes go down in defeat even when the wind was just barely blowing in the wrong direction. Just look at 2002 and 2004 -- perhaps the best two recruiting cycles in the history of the DSCC. From Ron Kirk, Jeanne Shaheen and Alex Sanders to Erskine Bowles, Betty Castor and Inez Tenenbaum, Democrats had a lot of interesting recruits who just couldn’t win against a mild headwind.

And that’s the problem facing McGavick, Bouchard, Ricketts and Raese. It may not be a mild headwind come November; it could be a hurricane. Still, if any of these four win this cycle, they’ll become instant players.

-- Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.

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