South Dakota Senate   John Thune (R) defeated Tom Daschle (D)  • LATEST POLLS    • CAMPAIGN ADS    • NEWS FROM HOTLINE    • CANDIDATE LINKS    • ELECTION RESULTS    • ALL SENATE TIP SHEETS

Former Rep. John Thune (R), who narrowly lost his first Senate bid in 2002 to Tim Johnson (D), pulled off Election Day's biggest upset, ousting Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D), 51 percent to 49 percent.

  • On The Trail Rank: 8 of 34 (Analysis)
  • Cook Rating: Toss Up (Analysis)
  • Filing Deadline: April 6, 2004
  • Primary Date: June 1, 2004
  • 1998 Results: Tom Daschle (D) won
    a third term with 62 percent of the vote.

Poll Track

For more numbers on this race, see Poll Track.

LATEST POLL

Thune (R)
Daschle (D)
A Zogby poll; conducted 10/25-26/04 for the Rapid City Journal/KOTA-TV; surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/-3.5% (Rapid City Journal, 10/28).

Campaign Ads

Search the archives for all 2004 campaign commercials in Ad Spotlight.

• DSCC Jumps Into South Dakota Senate Debate (Oct. 28, 2004)
  
• Partisan Rhetoric Ramps Up In South Dakota Senate Race (Sept. 30, 2004)
  
• Thune Launches Wave Of Anti-Daschle Radio Spots (Sept. 23, 2004)
  
• Daschle Weathers Republican Attacks On Tax Stance (Sept. 21, 2004)
  
• Daschle, Thune Keep South Dakota Airwaves Humming (Sept. 15, 2004)
  
• South Dakota Senate Candidates Address Insider Politics (Sept. 9, 2004)
  
• Chamber, Daschle Draw Battle Lines In South Dakota (Aug. 30, 2004)
  
• S.D. Senate Hopefuls Work Different Angles (Aug. 12, 2004)
  
• Senate Candidates Stump In Alaska, S.D. (July 30, 2004)
  
• Group Tries To Give Daschle A Pink Slip (July 26, 2004)
  

News From Hotline

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LATEST HEADLINES


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Field Of Candidates

The Democratic candidate for this race is:

SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D) -- Incumbent   • Campaign Web site   • Official Web site   • Almanac profile

The Republican candidate for this race is:

JOHN THUNE (R) -- Former congressman/2002 nominee   • Campaign Web site

Election Results

2004 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	John Thune (R)	197,814	51%	N/A
	Tom Daschle (D)	193,279	49%	N/A
2004 (D) Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Tom Daschle (D)	Unopposed	---	N/A
2004 (R) Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	John Thune (R)	Unopposed	---	N/A
1998 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Tom Daschle (D)	162,884	62%	$4,861,541
	Ron Schmidt (R)	95,431	36%	$492,854
	Other	3,796	1%	N/A
1998 Primary	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Tom Daschle (D)	Unopposed	---	N/A
1992 General	Candidate	Total Votes	Percent	Expenditures
	Tom Daschle (D)	217,095	65%	$3,981,548
	Charlene Haar (R)	108,733	33%	$478,421
	Other	8,667	3%	N/A

Cook Report Analysis

(Note: Analysis was published in October 2004 and does not reflect events that occurred after that date)

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota is by far the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. His chance of winning re-election is now no better than a toss-up. The three-term senator is being challenged by former Rep. John Thune, a Republican who represented the entire state in the House and who two years ago came within 524 votes of ousting Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, who was then a freshman.

Daschle and Thune are running very different races. Daschle is focused on his efforts to improve the lives of South Dakotans, and he has emphasized that his leadership position gives his small state enormous clout in Washington. Daschle has been critical of Bush -- who will carry the state by a wide margin -- for failing to provide drought relief to ranchers. At the same time, though, Daschle's campaign team ran an ad that included footage of Bush and Daschle embracing.

Republicans are arguing that Daschle has put the desires of his national party over the needs of his state. They point specifically to the obstructionist tactics Democrats have resorted to since losing control of the Senate. And Republicans are trying to demonstrate that what Daschle does in Washington is very different from what he says back home.

Thune has voiced his support for Bush and his agenda, particularly on tax cuts, national security, and the war in Iraq. At the same time, Thune has promised to be independent in order to best represent South Dakota's interests and values. He has also stepped up his field operation, which was a weak spot in his 2002 campaign.

Daschle has been advertising heavily on television and radio for more than a year and has perhaps the nation's most sophisticated field operation. Although Daschle initially held a high-single-digit lead, the race closed quickly once Thune went on television in early July. By all accounts, the race is dead even.

This may turn out to be the nation's closest Senate race and could well be decided by a margin of fewer than 1,000 votes. And, unlike any other Senate contest, the outcome here will have enormous implications for the 109th Congress because if Daschle is defeated, Senate Democrats would see a significant change in their leadership for the first time since 1995.