Friday, Dec. 14, 2007

Living To Filibuster Another Day       At least all the news for the NRSC wasn't bad this past month. They finally got a top-tier recruit to challenge a Democratic incumbent when state Treasurer John Kennedy announced his intent to topple Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Conversely, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) appears to have escaped a top-tier challenge, although there are some potential self-funding candidates still looking at that race. Other potentially competitive Democratic candidates in Tennessee and Mississippi also announced they wouldn't be running.       Make no mistake... At the end of the day, there's still only a single Democratic Senate seat in jeopardy, whereas 8-10 Republican seats could still be in play. But while Democrats will undoubtedly make net gains in the Senate next year, reaching the magic, filibuster-proof goal of 60 seats is more of a reach than it might have been given a few more recruiting coups.

Horne Solo Luallen's out, leaving only one confirmed challenger to McConnell. (#5) Turncoat Is Fair Play? Party switches in Louisiana (#6) and Nebraska (#9) could affect outcomes. Trent's Seat For Rent? Barbour trying to put off special election to replace Lott until next year. (#8) A "Laut" Of Mileage Estabrook says she won't make age an issue against Lautenberg in NJ, but... (#10) Will Buddy Wither On Vine? No one's giving Lindsey Graham's GOP challenger any chance. (#14)

"I am allergic to government regulation and red tape. And in New Jersey it's almost always allergy season."
-- NJ Senate candidate Anne Evans Estabrook (R), 12/5. (#10)

Senate 2008
    1    ALASKA: A Raysin In The Land Of The Midnight Sun
    2    COLORADO: Coordination Nation
    3    ILLINOIS: Just What The Doctor Ordered
    4    KANSAS: Dems Finally Have Their Orman
    5    KENTUCKY: Academics And Ag Workers Agree
    6    LOUISIANA: Ask Not What The Party Will Do For You
    7    MICHIGAN: Lambs vs. Levin
    8    MISSISSIPPI: There's A Lott Of Pent-Up Ambition Here
    9    NEBRASKA: Raimondo The Magnificent Pulls The Big Switcheroo!
    10    NEW JERSEY: Donde Estabrook? In The Race!
    11    NEW MEXICO: You Wouldn't Like Me When I Go Negative
    12    OKLAHOMA: Where Rice Comes Sweeping Into The Race
    13    OREGON: Neutral Is As Neutral Does
    14    SOUTH CAROLINA: Graham's Best Buddy?
    15    SOUTH DAKOTA: Now Where Were We ...
    16    VIRGINIA: "Rising Star" Not Risen Yet

Senate 2008

1

ALASKA: A Raysin In The Land Of The Midnight Sun

      When '06 AK-AL candidate/'98 "Republican Moderate Party" governor nominee Ray Metcalfe (D) served in the state Legislature from '79 to '82, his colleagues called him "Disco Ray." He recently collected another nickname: "Muckraker" Ray, for receiving the Homer environmental watchdog group's Muckraker Award.
      Officially, Metcalfe started his campaign on 12/2 in Homer with a fundraiser and meet-the-candidate coffee at the Mermaid Cafe. By Main Street, he hung a sign supported by a rake that read, "He will stop the bribes and pass the savings on to you."
      Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is also discussing the race with his family, and has had discussions with DNC officials. Spokesperson Julie Hasquet: "As Mark says, 'The filing deadline is June 1, so what's the hurry?'" Metcalfe said the DNC also talked to him about running against state Sen. John Cowdery (R). "They wanted him out of the way so Begich could run, he said."
      Metcalfe: "I intend to do to the Democratic Party what (Gov.) Sarah Palin (R) is doing to the Republican Party. I expect the leadership of the Democratic Party is just about as happy to see me as Randy Ruderich and the Republican Party was to see Sarah Palin."
      Metcalfe said he thinks it's possible Sen. Ted Stevens (R) could be indicted and would still run for re-election even if he was. Stevens spokesperson Tim McKeever, asked to comment: "(Stevens) is a candidate for re-election because he believes that Alaskans continue to need a strong, effective senator to fight for them in Washington and his record establishes that he is ready, willing and able to defend Alaska's interests in Washington."
      "Metcalfe said Begich also comes under a cloud of suspicion." Metcalfe: "I think if you take a hard look at Mark's track record you'll find a whole bunch of various things that's been widely exposed already. If you simply change from one bunch of good old boys to another bunch of good old boys willing to bend the rules and hand their buddies sweetheart deals, you haven't fixed a thing." Hasquet: "Mr. Metcalfe should be very careful about spreading wild accusations and lies about Mayor Begich. Metcalfe has absolutely nothing to back it up. There are no dirty deals that have gone on. It's sad. In an effort to prop himself up, he's trying to slay the character of others without anything to back him up" (Armstrong, Homer News, 12/6).
 (Back to Contents)

2

COLORADO: Coordination Nation

      Rep. Mark Udall (D-02) manager Mike Melanson thinks the two 527 ads attacking Udall that were launched last week were coordinated with the CO GOP. "How else could you explain the fact that two days before the ads were launched," '04 candidate/CO Bd. of Ed. member/ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) consultant Walt Klein "was at a Boulder event making what to Melanson then seemed like an obscure point about a Udall bill allowing U.S. companies to drill off Cuba? Klein attacked the proposal as a benefit" to Fidel Castro. Melanson: "That's a spin that is too uncannily similar to what the commercials came out with."
      But '06 CO-07 nominee Rick O'Donnell (R) said that in '06, it was GOPers who were being hammered by 527s that looked to them like thinly veiled arms of the Democratic Party. O'Donnell: "It's a prime example of the pot calling the kettle black. Maybe they're just upset that the Republicans are finally learning."
      Dems "see a suspicious web of relationships. The group that produced the Udall attack ads, Common Sense Issues Inc.," is headed by Colorado Springs consultant/ex-NRSC pol. dir. Patrick Davis, who worked on the '02 Senate campaign with now-CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams and in '04 with Klein. The DSCC says those links raise "serious questions whether Schaffer has illegally coordinated its attacks with a supposedly independent group."
      But "Davis, Klein and Wadhams all say there has been absolutely no coordination." Attorney Mark Grueskin, who represents Dems on campaign law issues, "tends to agree, noting that Klein and Wadhams are both smarter than to think running ads 11 months before the vote will be effective." Grueskin: "I have a lot of regard for a number of operatives on that side of the aisle, and maybe as much as anything, that (the timing of the ads) says there was no coordination, because this was really a dumb move." Moreover, GOPers "can point to examples from previous campaigns that appeared even more egregious," such as John Kerry '04 manager Jim Jordan leaving to consult with the Media Fund 527. O'Donnell: "Unless you have a smoking gun, an e-mail or something, you complain and say it's unfair and looks funny, but there isn't much more to do" (Riley, Denver Post, 12/12).
 (Back to Contents)

3

ILLINOIS: Just What The Doctor Ordered

      The IL GOP central committee voted on 12/8 to endorse physician Steve Sauerberg (R), "in a move aimed at distancing the political party from perennial and fringe candidates who also filed" for the 2/5 primary. The vote "was an unusual move. The organization has largely stayed away from involvement in primary contests. But it underscores potential concerns" that Sauerberg "may face name recognition problems in seeking votes for the nomination and the chance to face" Sen. Dick Durbin (D).
      Two other GOPers will appear on the ballot: Truck driver Mike Psak (R) and '04 candidate/'06 gubernatorial candidate Andy Martin (R). '04 candidate/insurance exec. Norm Hill (R) "was removed from the ballot by state election officials last week" (Pearson, Chicago Tribune, 12/9).
 (Back to Contents)

4

KANSAS: Dems Finally Have Their Orman

      Equity firm managing director Greg Orman (D) filed FEC paperwork on 12/5, "a step toward taking on" Sen. Pat Roberts (R). KS Dem exec. dir. Mike Gaughan "said Orman would make a public announcement soon." Roberts' camp "has already criticized Orman for having a residence" in FL and being registered to vote in that state in recent elections (AP, 12/6).
 (Back to Contents)

5

KENTUCKY: Academics And Ag Workers Agree

      Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is up with two new ads by McCarthy Marcus Hennings. "Relied", airing in Lexington, features farmer testimonials:
      Announcer, in the ad: "When an outdated quota system threatened Kentucky farmers, Mitch McConnell -- one of only two Senate leaders in Kentucky history -- fought for a buyout - and won." Henry West: "Senator McConnell was in a unique position to make this happen. He had the experience, the leadership position." Jeanne Ellis: "He stood up for the farmer. He looked out for the little guy." John Mayhan: "The buyout was so important to farmers all across Kentucky. It allowed us to stay on the farm and still be successful."
      "Cures", airing in Louisville, features University of Louisville testimonials. Announcer: "As one of two Senate Leaders in Kentucky history, Mitch McConnell is fighting for better health -- securing more than $200 million for our research universities." Dr. Donald Miller: "What Senator McConnell has done to help us will result in cures being discovered and tested in Louisville, Kentucky." Dr. Larry Cook: "Senator McConnell's support has had an incredible impact on the day to day health of Kentuckians" (Hotline sources, 12/10).
      The total ad buy is $30K for a one-week run (McArdle, Roll Call, 12/10).


Luallen's Officially Out...
      Aud. Crit Luallen (D) announced on 12/7 that she would not seek the seat. Luallen: "I think I would have been a strong candidate, and I think I would have been successful. And it was very hard for me, knowing that political analysis, to make this personal decision. But in the end, I did what I thought was best for me and for my husband and family. It's not because I have any health problems. I feel great. ... The polls show that Mitch McConnell is certainly vulnerable, and Kentuckians are ready for a change. I am confident that Democrats will field a strong candidate next year. ... This will be a national race. Senator McConnell is drawing money from national sources, and I believe for the Democrats to be effective in challenging him, they will also have to draw from national sources."
      University of Kentucky professor Ernest Yanarella: "I don't see a really viable Democratic political opponent that would stand a strong chance." NRSC spokesperson Rebecca Fisher: "It's obvious the Democrats have burned through their top-tier list. They've come up empty. We feel very good about the seat. The Democrats are now in agreement with us that Senator McConnell is unbeatable."
      DSCC spokesperson Matthew Miller: "He's not getting out of this without a race. The one thing about Kentucky is that there's never been a shortage of candidates interested in taking on Mitch McConnell. His political standing in the state has continued to erode even in the absence of a candidate, and we are confident that there will be a strong Democratic candidate to take him on" (Carroll, Louisville Courier-Journal, 12/10).


...But A Few Others Seem More Interested Now
      AG Greg Stumbo (D) has been considering a run against McConnell and said on 12/9 that he hopes to meet with national Dem officials next week. Stumbo: "I want to talk about how I think the race could shape up, see what kind of commitment we can get financially." '98 candidate/'03 LG nominee/businessman Charlie Owen (D) adviser Mark Riddle: "Charlie was fully prepared to back Crit. He is in the process of re-evaluating and talking to folks about running."
      Meanwhile, Dem activist Matthew Barzun said businessman Greg Fischer (D) is lining up support throughout the state and is planning to make a formal announcement about the race soon. Fischer is chair/founder of Iceberg Ventures, an investment firm, and CEO of the Dant Clayton Corp. "He is expected to be able at least to partially finance his own campaign" (Louisville Courier-Journal, 12/10). Fischer "is more of an unknown quantity. He has been less active in Democratic politics. For instance, he's donated $6,217 to candidates over the last decade, including $850" to ex-Rep. Anne Northup (R) and ex-Jefferson Co. Exec. Rebecca Jackson (R) (Alessi, Lexington Herald-Leader, 12/8).
      Achim Bergmann, who ran '03/'07 gubernatorial candidate/businessman Bruce Lunsford's (D) '07 bid, said on 12/13 that Lunsford is seriously considering entering the primary (Gerth, Louisville Courier-Journal, 12/14). Bergmann: "There's an organized movement that has encouraged Bruce to actively look at the race" (Alessi, Lexington Herald-Leader, 12/14).
      Ex-Gov. Paul Patton (D): "Bluntly, a person without an extensive record might be the best candidate. Then the race would be on McConnell. The ('04) race wasn't about (Daniel) Mongiardo, it was about (Jim) Bunning. If this race is on McConnell and the Republicans and Bush and what they've done, then McConnell will lose" (Alessi, Lexington Herald-Leader, 12/8).
      Rep. Ben Chandler (D-06) said yet again on 12/7 that he wouldn't run. Chandler: "I'd like to have at least a little time to work on the Appropriations Committee for the people I represent, who haven't had a member on an appropriations committee for 120 years or so" (Louisville Courier-Journal, 12/9).


Horne-ing In
      '06 KY-03 candidate/Iraq war vet/attorney Andrew Horne (D) launched his bid on 12/13 via YouTube. Horne: "I'm running for U.S. Senate because it's time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He is THE problem. It is time for Kentuckians to take our government and country back. We should not be told to take a backseat to the wealthy and powerful. ... [McConnell] symbolizes everything wrong with Washington. He bows to big business, practices the worst kind of politics, and doesn't take a stand when faced with tough issues. Simply put: Mitch McConnell carries George Bush's water on Iraq; I carried a rifle in Iraq" (release, 12/13).
      Horne and Fischer are scheduled to have coffee on 12/14 "to discuss their respective intentions about entering the race." Horne "said his decision about whether to leap into the race... isn't contingent on what Fischer does" or how the meeting goes (Alessi, Lexington Herald-Leader blog, 12/13).


Mitch Plays For Keeps
      University of Louisville professor Laurie Rhodebeck said McConnell remains a strong favorite. Rhodebeck: "It's not just the money. He's just ruthless, and nobody wants to go up against him. ... I suppose there is a hypothetical candidate who might bring excitement and money needed to beat McConnell, but I don't know if Horne is the one or not." Yanarella said Horne has a number of "clear pluses," most importantly his military service, but few people outside Jefferson Co. know who he is and that McConnell has a strong statewide network.
      "Horne lost by a wide margin" in '06, raising only about $210K. "But Horne has connections to veterans' groups that oppose the war, and Rhodebeck said he could raise significant amounts of money nationally this year. Horne acknowledged that he won't have as much as McConnell, but added that he thinks he will have enough to win." Rhodebeck: "Everything has to come together. If anyone can beat McConnell, that person is going to need a lot of money for air time, they're going to need some statewide appeal and they're going to need to ride a tide of discontent. And they're going to have to be successful at pinning that (the discontent) on McConnell" (Louisville Courier-Journal, 12/14).
 (Back to Contents)

6

LOUISIANA: Ask Not What The Party Will Do For You

      New Orleans Times Picayune's Maginnis writes: Before '04 Dem candidate/Treasurer John Kennedy (R) "can get at" Sen. Mary Landrieu (D), he "must attend to the detail of securing the GOP nomination, which is not as inevitable as the tone of his announcement or the welcoming remarks of party leaders. Fortunately for the party," should other GOPers run, "the affair won't be as crowded, messy and self-defeating as previous attempts to beat Landrieu. With the state returning to party primaries next year in federal elections," the GOP slot will be decided by LA's 700,000 registered GOPers in a 9/08 primary and, if necessary, a 10/08 runoff.
      Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) is still considering running, but first, he says, he must "get back into fighting shape" by fully recovering from serious injuries incurred in an August auto accident. The lifelong GOPer "with a solid Baton Rouge base would offer formidable competition" to Kennedy.
      "So Kennedy is moving hard out of the blocks. Indeed, he has been positioning himself to be the standard-bearer of the party since well before he joined it earlier this year." Even before leaving the Dems, he strongly criticized the spending plans of Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D), Agriculture Commissioner Bob Odom (D) and state Senate President Don Hines (D). "He should send them all fruit baskets this Christmas for the target practice they offered him as he resurrected his political career, which seemed finished after his aborted run" for governor in '03 "and his weak performance" in the '04 Senate campaign.
      "Closing ranks behind a candidate now and avoiding a potentially divisive fall primary" would give GOPers "more time to soften up Landrieu, who already is a little squishy." That she's as vulnerable as GOPers "claim she is seems not to square with her advancing seniority, her increasingly conservative voting record... and her major accomplishments in gaining offshore revenue sharing and additional Road Home funding. ... Indeed, Landrieu's prospects would be strong were it not for the rising GOP tide in state politics, the diminution of her New Orleans base and the challenge she continues to have in getting voters to warm up to her. What could overcome that, what's saved her twice before, is the failure" of GOPers "to peacefully come together behind a prime contender -- an advantage" that Kennedy "hopes to deny her" (12/5).


Lots Of Cash... But Making It Usable Could Be Tricky
      Kennedy raised $2 million to wage a non-campaign against no opponents in his '07 re-election but ran more than $1 million worth of TV ads anyway. His 10/20 reports show nearly $682K cash on hand and almost $670K in investments left. To assist his Senate bid, FEC's Gary Mullen "said Kennedy would have to physically cut a check to each of the state campaign contributors and ask them to resubmit the contributions to his federal campaign" (Gannett, 11/30).
      According to FEC records, Landrieu has more than $3.3 million on hand, while Kennedy has $37.5K in debt. Kennedy, in a letter to supporters: "Your financial contribution today will help us lay the groundwork for next year's campaign, which most national observers say will be one of the highest profile and competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation" (Swanson, The Hill, 11/29).
 (Back to Contents)

7

MICHIGAN: Lambs vs. Levin

      '02 nominee/ex-state Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski (R) has begun raising money and said it was "very likely" that he would announce next month. Raczkowski: "The Republicans have lost their identity and the Democrats have lost their minds. I think both parties have disappointed the country and disappointed Michigan. A lot of people in Michigan have lost hope and they need to have a candidate that rebuilds that hope."
      State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R) also "said he was leaning toward entering the race and would make his intentions known next month. He formed an exploratory committee a few weeks ago and is starting to receive contributions from supporters." Hoogendyk: "I'm past the 50 percent point. I'm definitely leaning. With each passing day as I talk to more people I get more positive feedback."
      Both "acknowledged the race" against Sen. Carl Levin (D) "would be difficult but said they could make it a competitive campaign." Raczkowski "said he ran his 2002 campaign on a shoe-string budget but has made more preparations this time." Raczkowski: "Some people jokingly say, 'well if you're running against Sen. Levin, then you're a sacrificial lamb.' I ask them, if not I, then who? If not now, then when? It's real simple -- somebody's got to stand up and fight for our future." Hoogendyk: "I don't know that today anybody would say it's a seat ripe for the taking but the political winds change. Who would have predicted in December of 1993 what ended up happening in Congress in November of 1994?" (Thomas, AP, 12/12).
 (Back to Contents)

8

MISSISSIPPI: There's A Lott Of Pent-Up Ambition Here

      A complete list of possible of possible candidates for Sen. Trent Lott's (R) seat, culled from recent coverage:
      Republicans: Ex-Netscape CEO Jim Barksdale, businessman Dave Dennis, Agriculture Undersecretary/ex-Cochran CoS Mark Keenum, ex-Tupelo Mayor/ex-TVA chair Glenn McCullough, state Sen. Walter Michel, Rep. Chip Pickering (03), Treasurer Tate Reeves, and Rep. Roger Wicker (01).
      Democrats: '07 gubernatorial nominee/attorney John Arthur Eaves, ex-Agriculture Sec./ex-Rep. Mike Espy, '06 nominee/state Rep. Erik Fleming, AG Jim Hood, ex-Jackson Mayor Harvey Johnson, ex-Gov. Ray Mabus, ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and ex-Rep. Ronnie Shows.


No Moore
      Ex-AG Mike Moore (D) said on 12/13 that he would not be a candidate for the seat. Moore: "The polls show I could win; and I would have the money I needed to win the race. It all just came down to whether it was best for my family and me. The truth is I made my decision four years ago, and it has been a good one for my family and me. ... The point is I am happy doing what I am doing. My family is happy, and I look forward to making a big difference in my state and nation" (Harrison, Tupelo Daily Journal, 12/14).
      "When voters head to the polls, Moore said in an interview that he hopes the first thing they'll look at is someone who is not polarizing." Moore: "There is too much partisan bickering in Washington, and frankly, in Mississippi, too. I hope whoever runs will stand up for what's right, not what is Democratic or Republican." He said experience in foreign affairs and the economy also are important, noting that ex-Gov./ex-ambassador to Saudi Arabia Mabus has both.
      MSU professor Mary Wiseman: "The Democrats have been anticipating the return to parity, and (Moore) was one of the things they were hanging their hat on. But that doesn't mean they haven't got anybody who would be almost as strong. ... Everybody says (Moore) was waiting on his first chance to go to Washington. That was it. Now that he is out of the way, it could have the same effect as an incumbent stepping down."
      Ex-Gov. Musgrove: "I have always strived to be a person who can provide sound leadership, unify people and serve Mississippi. So when we have a better idea of when Trent plans to step down, I will make my decision" (Rupp, Jackson Clarion-Ledger, 12/14).


Thankfully, This Will Be A Lot Less Complicated Than In WY
      "Wicker has privately indicated that he plans on seeking" the seat, and a source close to him "said it would be a public relations challenge for Pickering to reverse course and decide to remain" in DC (Kraushaar, Politico, 11/27). By late 11/26, Wickerforsenate.com "appears to have been registered" by "a group named Friends of Roger Wicker. Wicker: "Clearly, I am answering my telephone and listening to the people who call to give me their thoughts. McCullough said he is "possibly" interested in running and would go through a "methodical process," including discussions with his family" (Rutherford/Harrison, Tupelo Daily Journal, 11/27).
      Lott said he's made his "preferences" about the appointment known to Gov. Haley Barbour (R), but that he wasn't "trying to dictate anything" (Salter, Jackson Clarion-Ledger blog, 11/27). MSU prof. Wiseman: "One thing is for sure: The governor is not just the governor; he's the head of the Republican Party. And there is no more thorough political strategist than Haley Barbour" (Rupp, Jackson Clarion-Ledger, 11/27).
      Recently, "Mabus has kept an extremely low political profile, saying he just wants to spend time with his children." Shows "is also being mentioned, although he is likely weighing whether he wants to run" for MS-03 or Senate (Pender, Biloxi Sun-Herald, 11/27). Fleming: "I had a feeling he wasn't going to finish the term, and now that it will be open, well, needless to say I've gotten a lot of phone calls. It's something I'm definitely interested in" (Rupp, Jackson Clarion-Ledger, 11/27).


Scratch That ... It Could Get VERY Complicated
      AP's Pettus reports: "This much is simple:" Lott says he is resigning. MS law "makes things complicated from there." In a year that has a general state election or congressional elections, such as 2008, "the special election will be held on the same date as the regular election. In a year without a general state election or congressional elections, the special election will be held within 90 days of when the Senate seat is declared vacant. The governor must declare a vacancy within 10 days. That sets up a maximum 100-day timeline from the time a senator leaves or dies and the time the election is held."
      Within hours of Lott's announcement, Barbour "issued a news release saying he will set the special election" for 11/4/08 (11/27). MS Dem chair Wayne Dowdy: "We will wait for Senator Lott's official notice of resignation, when he will undoubtedly announce the exact date he will leave office. But if he does resign this calendar year we expect the governor to uphold the law and call a special election within 100 days. It is important that Mississippi be represented in Washington by a senator who was elected by the state's voters as soon as possible" (Cillizza, WashingtonPost.com, 11/27).
      Barbour spokesperson Pete Smith "said the governor's staff had researched election laws before Barbour issued the statement that the election would be next November" (AP, 11/27). Secretary of State Eric Clark's (D) office said early on 11/26 that state law appeared to require a special election within 90 days if Lott retires in '07. After consulting with attorneys, however, spokesperson Kell Smith said Clark concurred with Barbour based on a technicality in the letter of the law. In an exception to the 90-day rule, the law says the governor "shall designate" the special election for the same day as the general election if a vacancy occurs the same calendar year as a statewide election. MS had a statewide election earlier this month, so Barbour would be setting the special election for the next statewide election in '08. Kell Smith "agreed that Barbour was using a technicality." Smith: "That's exactly what it is. And we agree with that."
      Dowdy said the law "makes clear that if Sen. Lott does indeed resign during this calendar year, as stated, then Gov. Barbour must call a special election for within 90 days of making a proclamation -- which he must issue within 10 days of the resignation -- and not on Nov. 4, 2008, as he has announced he intends to do." Either way, "Barbour will be required to appoint someone within 10 days to fill the vacancy until an election can be held" (Blake, The Hill, 11/27).
      Any special election "would be an all-party affair," with Republicans and Democrats competing on the same ballot. If no one wins more than 50%, the top 2 candidates will proceed to a runoff (Politico, 11/27).


The Scent Of Musgrove Grows Stronger
      MS GOPers mulling the race "remained mostly silent" on 11/27, but several Dems "said they are considering vying" for the seat. Musgrove, Johnson, and Espy "expressed interest in pursuing the seat." Espy, who endorsed Barbour's re-election bid, "would not say whether he would consider switching parties to pursue the seat. While he acknowledged his endorsement raised eyebrows," Espy would say only that he is considering "all options. That includes running or not running."
      Musgrove said he's "seriously considering" a campaign and rejected suggestions that a Republican would necessarily win. Musgrove: "When you have 60 to 70 percent of Americans who believe (the U.S.) is headed in the wrong direction, even red-leaning states are as frustrated as the rest of the country." Johnson said recent statewide elections show that it's "not impossible for a Democrat to win. ... (Hood's win is) an indication that people in Mississippi will look at a candidate and decide if that person is the one to put in that position" (Chandler, Jackson Clarion-Ledger, 11/28).
      U.S. News' Bedard reports: "In a longshot campaign" to use Lott's retirement "as a slap" to Dems, President Bush's allies "are pushing" Barbour to choose retired federal Judge Charles Pickering, rejected by Dems for higher office, for the seat. A proponent: "It would be the biggest in-your-face move if it happened." "Proponents of picking Pickering, 70, say it would also help to revive the issue of the role of judges and presidential preferences on the eve" of the '08 race. Pickering's son, Rep. Pickering, and Wicker "are considered the front-runners for the post, however, and GOP sources close to the situation say that Wicker has the advantage" (11/27).
 (Back to Contents)

9

NEBRASKA: Raimondo The Magnificent Pulls The Big Switcheroo!

      Industrialist Tony Raimondo switched his registration from GOP to on Dem 12/4 "and said he expects to make a decision" about the race before the end of '07. Raimondo: "This is one positive step, but there is no decision yet. I'm honored national and state Democrats want to keep talking with me. We have several more meetings planned and I wanted to make sure I did my thing to keep the process going. ... I've always been a moderate and my record shows I've been bipartisan."
      Raimondo had considered entering the race as a GOPer, "but backed away" when ex-Agriculture Sec./ex-Gov. Mike Johanns (R) announced his candidacy and immediately won Gov. Dave Heineman's (R) endorsement. Raimondo: "I was disappointed the Republican primary got so closed. Voters deserve a choice" (Walton, Lincoln Journal-Star, 12/5). Raimondo, on talking with Dems: "I've been very pleased with the progress of the discussions we've been having and about my viability as a candidate. We've been sharing our philosophies and seeing if we have common ground" (Osborn, Columbus Telegram, 12/5).
      Phelps Co. Dem chair Brian Osborn: "It's very opportunistic. His burning desire to get into the Senate is from a business point of view. I'm a Democrat who feels that our purpose is to stand up for the people, for the little guy, and I think Mr. Raimondo wants to stand up for the business guy." But NE Dem chair Steve Achelpohl "dismissed criticism of Raimondo's motives, saying politicians of all stripes have switched parties in the past." Achelpohl: "Tony Raimondo has a lot to bring to the table in representing all Nebraska."
      Raimondo: "There is a lot about the party that I like, and one of them is the moderates that can get things done." Earlier this year, Raimondo gave $2.5K to the NRSC, which means his own money can be used against him if runs. "Raimondo said he has given money to a lot of politicians over the years," including Dems such as Sen. Ben Nelson (D) (Tysver, Omaha World-Herald, 12/5).


...Or Will Dems Have Another Option?
      '06 NE-03 nominee/rancher/prof. Scott Kleeb (D) "is trying to measure the commitment of his supporters before deciding whether he'll seek elective office in 2008. Kleeb has prepared a video message for his Web site asking supporters to help him decide whether the time is right and whether they're prepared to make 'the sacrifices all of us will have to make.'"
      Kleeb: "Before people say, 'Scott, I want you to run' (I want them to understand that)... I would need your full commitment. ... I want to let folks know that last year was wonderful and I'd like nothing better than to continue that campaign. I think we can do it if we all agree to make the commitment and the sacrifice." Kleeb said "it takes a lot of people investing a lot of time and effort" to conduct a successful race and that he and his family are trying to determine "whether the time is right to make another run for public office. ... It is always a difficult choice, but it is our choice, and a choice we have to make together. ... You have to honestly ask yourselves that question too. If we all decide the time is now, we will have to give it our all. And we will" (Walton, Lincoln Journal-Star, 12/4).
 (Back to Contents)

10

NEW JERSEY: Donde Estabrook? In The Race!

      Developer/ex-NJ Chamber of Commerce chair Anne Evans Estabrook (R) "kicked off her campaign" on 12/4, calling herself an "agent of change."
      Estabrook: "With New Jersey facing a true affordability crisis, with our federal government having the highest deficit in its history, and with politicians putting partisanship above problem-solving, there could be no more urgent time for me to roll up my sleeves and help fix that broken business called the federal government. It is time to take a businesslike approach in Washington. Cut the waste, demand results, and support only programs we can afford."
      "In addition to criticizing" Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) "for not doing more to help New Jerseyans, Estabrook said she opposes a deadline for bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq and does not approve of an immigration policy that would grant amnesty to illegal aliens." Asked about Lautenberg's age, Estabrook, 63, said: "I'm not making age an issue" (Margolin, Newark Star-Ledger, 12/5). But she "hinted" at the issue "by pointing out that he was first elected 25 years ago, the same year Time magazine named a promising new invention, the personal computer, Man of the Year."
      Estabrook "said she 'is pro-choice' while backing parental notification when minors seek abortions and opposing late-term abortions. She supports embryonic stem cell research if the cells would otherwise be discarded, but opposes the harvesting of embryonic stem cells" (Lu, Bergen Record, 12/5).
      Lautenberg manager Brendan Gill: "Every day, the people of New Jersey know Senator Lautenberg is standing up to powerful special interests to make a difference in their lives. That's why he is a relentless national leader pressuring the Bush administration to end the Iraq war, is vigorously fighting to deny guns to terrorists and is protecting our environment by taking on the threat of global warming" (Newark Star-Ledger, 12/5).
      State Sen.-elect/Assemb. Joe Pennacchio (R), on Estabrook: "It's her day. Good luck, and I'm looking forward to a spirited campaign" (Friedman, Politickernj.com, 12/4).


But Recent History Is Not On Her Side
      Philadelphia Inquirer's Burton writes: NJ voters haven't elected a GOP governor since '97 or senator since '72. "But change the names of the candidates, flash back to 1990, and it becomes easier to understand" why Estabrook thinks she has a shot. Back then, the relatively unknown Christie Whitman went up against" then-Sen. Bill Bradley (D). "When Whitman lost by only one point, she proved a Republican woman with a moderate political agenda could get voters' attention. Whitman used that race to propel herself to the governor's office."
      More: "While the state has become much more reliably Democratic, Estabrook's campaign in some ways will evoke Whitman's. Estabrook plans to portray herself as an outsider who wants to cut federal spending, pump up the economy, and, touching a more recent issue, seal American borders." Noting Ronald Reagan as a role model, she said: "I am allergic to government regulation and red tape. And in New Jersey it's almost always allergy season. ... Our income taxes are too high, our sales taxes are too high, and our property taxes are the highest in the nation" (12/5).
 (Back to Contents)

11

NEW MEXICO: You Wouldn't Like Me When I Go Negative

      In a "change of plans," Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) said on 12/7 that he "won't run" for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's (R) open seat in '08. Chavez, in a statement: "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election. A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly would be, would likely weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy." Instead, Chavez said Rep. Tom Udall (D) will have his "full support" (Nash, Albuquerque Tribune, 12/7).
      Until "recently," Chavez had been "aggressively attacking" Udall for his congressional record. Last month, he said Udall was a "congressman who is not known for having done anything" (Kraushaar, Politico's "Crypt" blog, 12/7). Alternative newspaper publisher Leland Lehrman (D) is the only other Dem in the race (Albuquerque Tribune, 12/7).


Were There Any Bright Spots?
      Chavez "wasn't beating" Udall in polls or money, and it's a "good bet all played a role" in his decision to drop out (Nash, Albuquerque Tribune, 12/8). Dems say the "gap" between Udall and Chavez in internal polling Chavez received last week "was so big the mayor couldn't figure a way to make it up" (Nash, Albuquerque Tribune, 12/10). Ex-Ambassador/Chavez finance committee member Ed Romero said Chavez's polling showed the only way he could beat Udall was "to wage an extremely aggressive, possibly a negative campaign" against Udall, which would have "created the possibility of a Democratic loss in the general election" (Terrell, Santa Fe New Mexican, 12/7).
      Chavez lagged in fundraising as well. At the end of the 3rdQ, Udall had "more than" $800K on hand, while Chavez said he'd raised "about" $300K. The University of New Mexico's Christine Sierra said Chavez "might have been done in" by his campaign message. Sierra: "So far, his main arguments as to why people should prefer him over Udall was that he was the native son and he was going to try and pull out the Hispanic vote. ... I think both of those were very weak messages that ultimately wouldn't play well with Hispanics or the Democratic base" (Albuquerque Tribune, 12/8).
      Did national Dems "play a role" in Chavez decision? DSCC spokesperson Matt Miller said "no one" from that organization "urged Chavez to drop out or told him he was facing an uphill battle" (Albuquerque Tribune, 12/10). But his cause wasn't helped when DSCC chair Charles Schumer (D-NY) "said the group might lend aid to a primary candidate who appeared to have the best chances" in 11/08 (Albuquerque Tribune, 12/8).


He's Got That General Feeling
      Pollster Brian Sanderoff said that Chavez's decision means Udall can now "focus on more conservative, rural and suburban" Dems who "often vote" for Republicans in the general election (Santa Fe New Mexican, 12/7). Udall's camp didn't return messages on 12/7, but it did, however, put out a statement "within minutes after Chavez's announcement that Udall was heading to Iowa to campaign" for Gov. Bill Richardson (D) (Albuquerque Tribune, 12/8).
 (Back to Contents)

12

OKLAHOMA: Where Rice Comes Sweeping Into The Race

      An "ambitious quest" is taking place in the form of state Sen. Andrew Rice's (D) campaign for Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R) seat. Rice: "I feel like this is an anti-incumbent year." Rice "will be running against an incumbent with a long record, who has made some enemies in Washington, particularly in the environmental community." The League of Conservation Voters named Inhofe as one of its "Dirty Dozen" and "has it's sights" on him.
      Schumer said Rice "is a good candidate. He's going to surprise people." A Democrat hasn't gotten more than 41% of the vote in an OK Senate race since '90. But Rice "sees an opening for a new face, at a time when, he said, voters are tired of partisan gridlock in Washington and nasty campaigns." Rice: "They want competent and responsible government. I think sometimes (political) races are portrayed as people are looking for the ideal candidate. People are pretty down-to-earth and realistic about what they expect. People want you to pay attention to what they're saying. They want immigration reform. They want affordable health care" (Casteel, Oklahoma City Oklahoman, 11/25).
 (Back to Contents)

13

OREGON: Neutral Is As Neutral Does

      The DSCC "insists it hasn't officially endorsed a candidate, but "its checkbook has already picked a favorite." They spent $93K on behalf of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) in the 3rdQ, "more than three times as much" as Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO), the party's next-biggest beneficiary. DSCC spokesperson Miller "insisted the party's spending doesn't mean it has officially endorsed Merkley, but said the committee was happy to support his campaign." Miller: "He has a great record in the state assembly; he's got a great record of legislative accomplishments already and of delivering for Oregonians."
      The DSCC spent about $73K for an advance team from The Markham Group to promote Merkley's kickoff tour and about $20K to a DC firm for "research." Merkley spokesperson Russ Kelly "said he was unsure what services, exactly, The Markham Group performed for Merkley, but that the campaign is glad to receive a vote of confidence from the national party." Kelly: "Absolutely we're happy to have their support. They think Jeff is a great candidate to take on (Sen.) Gordon Smith (R)."
      Ex-DoJ environmental attorney Steve Novick (D) manager Jake Weigler: "This report leaves no doubt that D.C. insiders are trying to dictate the outcome of this primary, and we expect that Oregon voters will not take kindly to it." Kelly said he would "summarily dismiss" any assertion that Merkley's campaign was too closely aligned with DC party bigwigs. Kelly: "This is an Oregon-run campaign." Portland State University professor Richard Clucas: "I think the biggest potential for a backlash would be if Novick were to win the primary ... then he might be rather irritated at the party" (Chu, Bend Bulletin, 11/28).


Wrapping Up Labor
      Merkley's camp "received a major boost" on 12/11 when he won an early endorsement from the OR AFL-CIO. The 145,000-member group "will now go to work promoting Merkley" as it does outreach to more than 200,000 voters in AFL-CIO households. "Although some union officials have wanted to sit out" the primary, OR AFL-CIO Pres. Tom Chamberlain said members of their political committee strongly felt an early endorsement was the best way to build up a candidate to defeat Smith. Chamberlain: "For us to be as effective as we can be, we need to be united, start early and build toward November... I think there is a good parallel between what labor did for (Gov.) Ted Kulongoski (D) in 2001 and what labor will do for Jeff Merkley in 2008."
      Novick manager Weigler charged that the endorsement process was "driven by D.C. ... It's sad that the AFL-CIO would tell rank-and-file workers across Oregon to turn their backs on someone who has been shoulder to shoulder with them on the front lines and picket lines for more than a decade." Chamberlain said the endorsement "was absolutely a local decision" and that both Merkley and Novick worked hard to sway officials from the member unions. In the end, Merkley won more than two-thirds of the votes of the roughly 35 union reps who attended the endorsement meeting.
      Weigler said Novick will continue to compete for labor support. OR's two largest unions -- SEIU and the OR Education Association are not affiliated with the AFL-CIO and will make their endorsements later (Portland Oregonian, 12/11).


Is Novick A Nuisance Or Something More?
      Roll Call's Drucker reports: "True, there's only a remote possibility" that Novick will beat Merkley, but "the pesky" Novick "isn't going away," and the primary could be "a good test case for just how down on establishment politicians the public really is." Pollster Adam Davis: "I think [Novick] has a shot. If Steve has enough money to do anything -- to get his message out, to kind of paint [Merkley] as part of the establishment, part of the Legislature, part of doing business as usual -- our opinion is, quite frankly, he has a chance."
      Novick's advisers believe anti-establishment polling data like "spell trouble for Merkley, the odds-on favorite" of many observers to win the primary. Merkley "has the support of most establishment" OR Dems and the DSCC and "has key advantages as well in fundraising and battle-tested campaign staff and advisers."
      But the Novick camp, "while acknowledging its financial deficiency, believes its candidate is actually the safer bet" against Smith. "Novick's strategy is to convince primary voters that he is the most electable" Dem by running as an outsider "while simultaneously branding Merkley as a part of the establishment." Weigler: "Our chief argument is that right now the public is very down on elected officials in Washington and at the state and local level. They are looking for someone who is going to shake things up."
      Dem insiders "say Merkley is doing everything he needs to do to cruise past Novick and lay a political foundation that will enable him to oust Smith." Although his 3rdQ fundraising report "was viewed as a disappointment by some," one DC Dem strategist "said Merkley's fundraising has picked up." Some Dem insiders "following the race closely say Merkley is more than the favorite in name only. They say he has the edge in all metrics that campaigns are judged on -- and that Novick's argument that Merkley is vulnerable because he is an incumbent state legislator is questionable." A DC Dem strategist: "I don't think there's anyone who thinks Merkley won't be the nominee. The primary is a distraction, but not much more."
      But the Merkley camp "doesn't go so far as to dismiss Novick out of hand." It's "monitoring its opponent and has moved to protect its left flank. But most campaign activities that are conducted for public consumption make it appear as though Merkley is running against Smith, not Novick." Merkley spokesperson Kelley: "We cannot wait until after the May primary to focus on Gordon Smith. This is why we're in the race" (12/11).
 (Back to Contents)

14

SOUTH CAROLINA: Graham's Best Buddy?

      Roll Call's Murray writes: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) "undoubtedly breathed a sigh of relief" last week, when orthodontist/ex-RNC committeeman Buddy Witherspoon (R) announced he'll run. While Witherspoon "looks like a credible challenger" on paper, he's "primarily known for his alleged ties" to the St. Louis-based Council of Conservative Citizens, which the Southern Poverty Law Center refers to as a "white supremacist" organization. Witherspoon's "primary aim" is serving as a "vehicle for GOP grumbling over Graham's perceived moderate stances" on judges and immigration. It's "widely held" that conservative "contrarians" make up "roughly" 30% of the primary vote.
      Witherspoon: "There's a great deal of concern out there about the representation South Carolina is getting. Immigration could be a top issue." On that issue, he prefers "shutting down the current system" and closing off the borders before discussions begin on "what comes next." SC GOP Chair Katon Dawson "agreed" with Witherspoon that immigration "remains a controversial issue" among conservatives, but said one issue "likely will not carry the day" in the primary. Dawson: "There are a lot of single issue voters; certainly the base speaks loud and clear. [But] overwhelmingly Republicans will come back home" to Graham.
      A GOP source "suggested" that Witherspoon is Graham's "ideal electoral sparring partner," stating: "He's probably good for the race. Witherspoon is going to hold Lindsey Graham accountable for most of his votes, [but] when those are analyzed, most of the general public are going to think [Graham's] OK." Another source: "When you put [Gov.] Mark Sanford (R) and [Sen.] Jim DeMint (R) on TV for Lindsey Graham, this race is going to be over."
      Witherspoon's "brush with controversy" comes from media reports eight years ago "claiming" he "defied" then-RNC Chair Jim Nicholson's order "demanding that some members of the RNC's leadership sever ties" with the CCC. A '99 New York Times article "indicated" that Witherspoon "refused to resign" from the group. But Witherspoon "rebutted" that story. Witherspoon: "I've been to one meeting. That's it. Was it racist? It did appear that their views were a little bit extreme" (Murray, Roll Call, 12/6).
 (Back to Contents)

15

SOUTH DAKOTA: Now Where Were We ...

      Sen. Tim Johnson (D) "joked with reporters" 12/12 and "talked about everything from the farm bill to his re-election plans" in his first phoner of the year. "It was a major milestone for Johnson, who answered 25 questions lobbed at him by a group of 36 reporters." Johnson: "As I was saying, while we often stop conference calls for a couple of weeks around the holidays, I wasn't expecting this much time away from you all."
      The "28-minute call was plagued with background noise, including the blare from a radio broadcast when someone's phone was put on hold." A reporter: "Well, senator, as you can see, nothing has changed while you were gone. We're still a bunch of idiots."
      "Johnson said he plans to commemorate his anniversary" today by going with his wife to GWU Hospital "and meeting privately with the doctors, nurses and therapists who helped save his life. He said he also plans to visit with Senate Chaplain Barry Black and then have a private lunch with his staff." Johnson: "It is a working day, though, in the Senate and we expect votes. I am working for a state that I love and that is the best way I could hope to mark this one year anniversary."
      "Johnson spoke slowly and, for the most part, with confidence." Several times, he "paused to search for words, like when he responded to a question about whether his health should be an issue when he campaigns." Johnson: "It should be, but I feel good and I have no effects. I can do the job and seniority is important. I serve on the Appropriations Committee and the Indian Affairs Committee and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and that is important for South Dakota" (Bremner, Gannett, 12/14). He said he would debate the GOP nominee, stating: "How many and where are put in reserve, but I will participate in debates" (Jalonick, AP, 12/13).
 (Back to Contents)

16

VIRGINIA: 'Rising Star' Not Risen Yet

      Del. Chris Saxman (R) "surprised" some of his fellow GOPers by announcing at their retreat 12/1 that he would not run, after "an incredible amount of soul searching." Saxman: "Though a U.S. Senate campaign is governed by federal law, it is my belief that raising money (during a legislative session) is not the thing to do. While it might be legal, it is unethical. We need politicians to put that first" (Gannett/Staunton News Leader, 12/2).
      That leaves Del. Bob Marshall (R), "the House's most outspoken and consistent opponent of abortion and gay rights, as the only GOP obstacle" for ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) -- "and a distant one at that." Marshall skipped the 12/1 forum, but a rep. read a 1,000-word message from Marshall that took jabs at both Saxman and Marshall while neither committing himself to the race or ruling it out. Marshall: "Why break up the Reagan coalition by nominating a candidate who does not support the Republican Platform's call to protect human life from its beginning?" That's a jab at Gilmore for his support for abortion during the first eight weeks of a pregnancy (Lewis, AP, 12/2).
      In a speech, Gilmore said it was time to unify the party against ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D). Gilmore: "Democrats do not understand the big picture. They do not understand the conflicts and challenges the state faces today and will face. ... Mark Warner will promise you he will not be partisan if he is elected to the Senate. Don't forget he also promised not to raise taxes" (Craig, Washington Post, 12/2). More Gilmore: "The Republican Party is very diverse in its ideas and membership, to be sure. But at the end of the day, we have to combine to go forward in order to oppose this Hillary Clinton-Mark Warner team" (Lessig, Newport News Daily Press, 12/1).


You Fight With The Candidate You Have
      Richmond Times-Dispatch's Schapiro writes: "It's an understatement" to say some GOPers "are underwhelmed" by Gilmore's candidacy. "Bunches figure he'll get his tail kicked" by Warner, "and the GOP finally will be rid of him. But not until Gilmore, no wimp when it comes to political combat, gets a piece of Warner's rich-kid hindquarters. That's why Warner" may "attempt an above-it-all campaign."
      "The first challenge for Gilmore: contain the restlessness within the GOP ranks. That requires outreach." On 12/5 and 12/6, "for example, Gilmore is concentrating on the grass roots, with volunteer phone banks" in Richmond and DC. "Also, Gilmore is soliciting donations" from GOP business types "viewed as friendly to Warner because they accepted from the Democrat prize political appointments, such as seats on college boards" (12/2).
 (Back to Contents)

[ Back Issues Of Hotline Weekly ]

---

Deron Lee, Hotline Weekly Editor Quinn McCord, Hotline Weekly Editor	John Galloway, President Amy Walter, Hotline Editor-in-Chief
Hotline Weekly is drawn from news reports gathered by The Hotline and House Race Hotline, which are published by National Journal Group Inc. For more information on these or other National Journal Group publications, go to http://nationaljournal.com/about/.

---