September 7, 2008
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Public Catches Clinton 'Inevitability' Fever
Plus: Insiders Deem Bill Clinton An Asset For Hillary; Parents Fret Over School Safety

Poll Track
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By Jessica Taylor and Irene Tsikitas, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Friday, Oct. 12, 2007

Thanks to encouraging poll numbers for Hillary Rodham Clinton, the punditry seems to have already crowned her the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, and Republican candidates are beginning to treat her as such. Now a new FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll suggests the perception of Clinton's "inevitability," not just in the primary but also in the general, is seeping into the public's consciousness.

In the national survey, 50 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton, putting the New York senator 32 points ahead of her nearest primary rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The results represent Clinton's largest lead yet in FOX/Opinion Dynamics polling. Obama garnered 18 percent, slipping 6 points since last month's poll. Support for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards fell 2 points to 11 percent, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson got a 3-point bump to come in fourth place with 4 percent.

Looking ahead to the general election, a 44-percent plurality of all respondents said they believe Clinton will become the nation's first female president in January 2009. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) was a distant second in the open-ended question, with 12 percent predicting he'd be the next president.

Furthermore, when all respondents were asked to judge the qualifications of the six top contenders in the overall presidential race, Clinton had the highest percentage of people saying she was "very qualified" (47 percent). The former first lady outpaced the two Republicans considered to be the most qualified: Arizona Sen. John McCain (34 percent) and Giuliani (32 percent). Twenty-three percent said Obama, who has been trying to assert his credentials on the campaign trail, was very qualified to be commander in chief.

Clinton's large lead may seem improbable to some, considering the past scandals that have dogged her and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. However, about half of FOX/Opinion Dynamics respondents said a candidate's personal life is less important than his or her issue positions. Also good news for Clinton: About three-quarters said they were unlikely to vote against a candidate because of his or her spouse.

This week's National Journal poll [PDF] probed that question further, asking political insiders to weigh in on whether Bill Clinton is an asset or a liability to his wife's campaign. Democrats were more enthusiastic in their assessment; 91 percent said he is an asset, with 73 percent characterizing Bill as a "major" boost for Hillary. One Democratic insider suggested that the "public appears over their Clinton fatigue and yearns for competence again." Republicans agreed, though less enthusiastically, that the two-term president is a help to his wife: Seventy-three percent said Bill's presence is a good thing for Hillary.

Danger In The Halls
In addition to pencils, notebooks and big yellow buses, going back to school in the United States unfortunately tends to bring fresh news of campus violence. From the shooting at Delaware State University last month to the violent rampage at a Cleveland high school this week, parents can be forgiven for fretting over their children's safety.

About a third of Americans responding to a recent Gallup poll said they frequently or occasionally worry about "having a school-aged child physically harmed attending school." Thirty-eight percent, a slim plurality, said they rarely or never have such fears. Worries about school safety appear to have waned a bit over the past year. In October 2006, 40 percent said they worried about the potential dangers their children faced at school.

Incidents like this week's thwarted, Columbine-like plot in Pennsylvania, in which a teenager was caught with a large stockpile of weapons including an assault rifle purchased by his mother, tend to rekindle the gun control debate. In the Gallup poll, a little more than half of respondents said they favored stricter gun laws, but nearly six in 10 said they'd prefer current laws to be enforced better before new regulations are passed.

The Public Pulse -- Latest Opinions At A Glance
The table below offers the latest key national numbers. Click on the number in question for poll details. (Last updated April 2)
Congressional Job Approval
Bush Job Approval Rating
Economy Positive Rating State Of The Nation
20%
Job approval
rating.

28%
Job approval
rating.

19%
Give the economy a positive rating.
20%
Say country is going in right direction.

The above icons represent (left to right) Congress, President Bush, the economy and the direction of the country.

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