Polling data and Poll Track archives are available to subscribers only. Try it free. In Today's Poll Track: AP/Ipsos · Gallup/USA  NJ's Insiders Other Recent Polling The Public Pulse: Opinions At A Glance Polling Archives Campaigns · Key Issues People, Institutions & Events E-Mail Alert Search Poll Track Glossary Of Terms About Poll Track

It's been several years now since Gallup pollsters saw President Bush's approval ratings crack the 50-percent mark, and the first polls from his last year in office suggest they're unlikely to see that happen again before the next presidential inauguration. The newest round of approval figures show Bush slipping further in public opinion -- even on issues where he's found some recent political success, such as the Iraq war.

In a Gallup/USA Today survey conducted during the first weekend of 2008, 32 percent of respondents said they approved of Bush's job performance. According to Gallup's analysis, that's 1 point below his average approval rating since May 2007. Those findings are echoed in an Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll [PDF] that shows the president's popularity declining slightly from 36 percent in December to 34 percent this month.

Reflecting other polls that show Americans continue to worry about the economy, approval of Bush's handling of the economy dropped 3 points from December to 33 percent in the most recent AP/Ipsos survey, with 38 percent of respondents saying they "strongly disapprove." More surprising, especially to politicians and pundits who have recently been hailing the success of the troop surge in Iraq, Bush's approval rating on the war also fell 3 points in the past month.

In addition, AP/Ipsos pollsters found evidence that the president's victories on the budget last month may cost him politically in the long run, as some predicted at the time. Despite Bush's success in forcing budgetary concessions from the Democratic Congress, his approval rating on domestic issues fell from last month to 34 percent, just 3 points higher than the all-time low he hit in October 2007. On foreign policy and terrorism issues, however, the president's approval ratings held steady at just over 40 percent.

Things aren't looking much brighter on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, where Congress faces even lower approval ratings than the president. Twenty-six percent of those surveyed by AP/Ipsos said they approve of the job Congress is doing, while Gallup respondents put the figure at 23 percent. The good news for legislators returning to work next week is that these abysmal figures just about held even from December -- suggesting that delays and compromises in passing the budget haven't hurt them with the roughly one in four Americans who approve of their job performance.

Gallup's analysis makes the case that the discrepancy in support between the executive and legislative branches could be based as much on partisanship as job performance. While strong Republican support is buoying the president's approval rating (three out of four GOP respondents told pollsters they approve), voters of both parties generally disapprove of the legislature.

Predicting Next November
What a difference a month makes.

With both presidential primary battles wide open after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, this week's National Journal poll [PDF] shows John McCain as the new presumptive favorite for the GOP nod among political insiders from both sides of the aisle. And while Hillary Rodham Clinton is still cited as the candidate most likely to capture the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama has seen his standing grow among his own party's insiders since they were last polled in December [PDF].

Among Republicans, 52 percent predicted McCain will be their party's nominee. Mitt Romney came in a distant second at 27 percent, while only 16 percent chose Rudy Giuliani. In the December poll of both political and congressional insiders, Giuliani was seen as most likely to capture the nomination.

Democratic respondents cited McCain's name recognition as an asset on Feb. 5, when more than 20 states will hold their nominating contests, and said his ability to use the media to his advantage would be crucial to his success. He's the "last man standing: The adult in the field," one GOP insider surmised.

Meanwhile, despite his Hawkeye State upset, just 2 percent of GOP insiders said they thought Mike Huckabee would win the nomination. In contrast, the former Arkansas governor placed second among Democrats at 23 percent, with respondents predicting his evangelical constituency would help him win.

Turning to the Democratic respondents, while 77 percent of insiders questioned in December said Clinton was likely to emerge victorious, a slightly smaller number (63 percent) this week predicted she'd be their nominee. Eight in 10 GOP insiders also predicted that Clinton would go all the way. Thirty-six percent of Democratic insiders said Obama would win the nod, up from 19 percent in December. Despite the relative agreement on Clinton, one Democratic respondent quipped, "You asked for my prediction, but I wouldn't want to have to bet a dime on it."

The Public Pulse -- Latest Opinions At A Glance
The table below offers the latest key national numbers. Click on the number in question for poll details. (Last updated April 2)

20% Job approval rating.	28% Job approval rating.	19% Give the economy a positive rating.	20% Say country is going in right direction.

The above icons represent (left to right) Congress, President Bush, the economy and the direction of the country.

Search Poll Track
Search the archives of Poll Track using the form below. Note: Do not include connectors ("and," "or," etc.) in your query -- simply enter the keywords you would like to search.

Sign Up For Poll Track's E-Mail Alert
Poll Track's daily roundup of the latest national numbers is available as an HTML e-mail alert (click here to see a sample). The alert is sent at noon each weekday and available to all NationalJournal.com subscribers. Click here to sign up.