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2006 House Race Rankings
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, Nov. 6, 2006
More 2006 Race Rankings:
Governor Races • Senate Races
Hotline Editor in Chief Chuck Todd also writes "On The Trail." Seats are ranked by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip). House Race Hotline Editor Josh Kraushaar assisted in these rankings. Send comments.
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We're not comfortable giving a range anymore. We believe it's an either/or situation. Either the Democrats narrowly win the House with 16 to 18 seats or they win a 30 to 35-plus landslide. We can't picture them winning 25 seats, because if they take Nos. 24 and 25 on our list, they should also take the next five to 10 below that.
The Top 30
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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1
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ARIZONA-08
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 1
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This is one GOP nominee the party can't blame the Club for Growth for.
Tip Sheet
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2
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PENNSYLVANIA-07
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Curt Weldon (R)
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Last Ranking: 5
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Weldon's apparently pulling some of his TV ad buys, possibly to save money for a legal defense fund. Welcome, Congressman Sestak.
Tip Sheet
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3
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OHIO-18
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 6
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Joy Padgett was not the best replacement. Meanwhile, why was Bob Ney still in Congress as of last Friday?
Tip Sheet
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4
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COLORADO-07
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 8
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The GOP has moved its Denver TV ad buy to the 4th District. Perlmutter is cruising.
Tip Sheet
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5
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INDIANA-02
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Chris Chocola (R)
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Last Ranking: 9
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The numbers have gotten slightly better for Chocola but he's still trailing Donnelly.
Tip Sheet
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6
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INDIANA-08
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John Hostettler (R)
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Last Ranking: 3
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Do Republicans believe Hostettler still has a shot? Maybe. Democrats believe Ellsworth is in great shape.
Tip Sheet
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7
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PENNSYLVANIA-10
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Don Sherwood (R)
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Last Ranking: 4
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The Bush visit did help Sherwood with some of his GOP base, but sans one more Bush visit, Carney's the favorite.
Tip Sheet
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8
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IOWA-01
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 11
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Braley appears to have this one nearly wrapped up. Some Republicans are wondering why Whalen didn't spend more of his own money.
Tip Sheet
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9
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NORTH CAROLINA-11
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Charles Taylor (R)
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Last Ranking: 10
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Shuler continues to lead. Taylor has been this far behind before and won, but this is a different kind of year.
Tip Sheet
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10
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TEXAS-22
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 2
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Lampson hasn't run the best race and the GOP has done a good job of educating its voters about the Sekula-Gibbs write-in, but this is still a tough thing to accomplish.
Tip Sheet
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11
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NEW YORK-24
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 13
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As the statewide Democratic ticket gets stronger, so does Arcuri.
Tip Sheet
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12
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FLORIDA-16
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 7
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Negron has run a very good campaign and he's done a good job of making GOP voters feel comfortable "punching" Foley for Negron. The tightening Florida governor's race does help Mahoney.
Tip Sheet
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13
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OHIO-15
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Deborah Pryce (R)
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Last Ranking: 12
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Pryce isn't toast yet, but she's probably a bit behind and it's hard to imagine any trailing Republican winning in Ohio.
Tip Sheet
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14
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CONNECTICUT-05
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Nancy Johnson (R)
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Last Ranking: 23
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Johnson and Murphy have both run outstanding campaigns; Murphy should be considered a potential rising star in the Democratic Party should he pull this off.
Tip Sheet
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15
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CONNECTICUT-04
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Christopher Shays (R)
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Last Ranking: 18
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Could the New York Times actually do in Shays? Wasn't he once their favorite Republican? We hope John McCain is taking notes.
Tip Sheet
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16
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INDIANA-09
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Mike Sodrel (R)
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Last Ranking: 14
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Of the three Indiana seats, Republicans are making the strongest push to save Sodrel, who probably still trails Hill, but it's close.
Tip Sheet
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17
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PENNSYLVANIA-06
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Jim Gerlach (R)
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Last Ranking: 17
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Gerlach's run a great race, and has come back from the dead. But Murphy is running in a great year to be a Democrat in Pennsylvania.
Tip Sheet
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18
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NEW MEXICO-01
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Heather Wilson (R)
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Last Ranking: 19
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If you believe the Democrats are going to win the majority, then Madrid has to be one of their freshmen.
Tip Sheet
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19
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FLORIDA-13
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 16
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Every time Buchanan takes two steps forward, he seems to take one step back. Jennings hasn't closed the deal yet.
Tip Sheet
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20
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ARIZONA-05
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J.D. Hayworth (R)
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Last Ranking: 33
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No Democrat has gotten stronger this month than Mitchell. The immigration issue doesn't seem to be helping Hayworth enough.
Tip Sheet
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21
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PENNSYLVANIA-08
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Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
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Last Ranking: 27
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Are things starting to shift just slightly in Pennsylvania away from all the endangered Republicans?
Tip Sheet
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22
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FLORIDA-22
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Clay Shaw (R)
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Last Ranking: 21
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Forget Madrid-Wilson; Shaw-Klein is our pick for closest race in the country.
Tip Sheet
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23
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ILLINOIS-06
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 24
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Another tight race. Will Obama be the difference for Duckworth? He's spending the final days with her.
Tip Sheet
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24
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CALIFORNIA-11
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Richard Pombo (R)
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Last Ranking: 36
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This is another race, like Arizona-05, that seems to have taken a turn for the worse for the incumbent.
Tip Sheet
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25
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CONNECTICUT-02
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Rob Simmons (R)
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Last Ranking: 22
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Simmons appears to be slightly ahead, which is better than either of his (soon-to-be-ex) GOP colleagues in the state.
Tip Sheet
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26
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WASHINGTON-08
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Dave Reichert (R)
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Last Ranking: 20
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Did Reichert go too negative on Burner's gender and youth?
Tip Sheet
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27
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OHIO-01
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Steve Chabot (R)
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Last Ranking: 25
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This is a bellwether race for us when it comes to determining how well or not well the GOP base turned out.
Tip Sheet
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28
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NEW YORK-20
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John Sweeney (R)
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Last Ranking: 32
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Sweeney's bad week may be the final nail. That said, this is still a very reliable GOP seat.
Tip Sheet
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29
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GEORGIA-12
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John Barrow (D)
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Last Ranking: 31
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Here's an interesting thing in this race: it's impossible to poll because neither side is comfortable with how they are screening for black voters. There are models that have Burns winning by high single digits and models that put Barrow narrowly ahead.
Tip Sheet
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30
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PENNSYLVANIA-04
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Melissa Hart (R)
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Last Ranking: 43
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Did Hart not do enough early on to define Altmire when she could?
Tip Sheet
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The Rest
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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32
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OHIO-02
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Jean Schmidt (R)
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Last Ranking: 38
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45
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OHIO-12
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Pat Tiberi (R)
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Last Ranking: 50
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50
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IDAHO-01
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 57
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55
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TEXAS-23
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Henry Bonilla (R)
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Last Ranking: 54
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