Hotline's editor in chief, Chuck Todd, is keeping tabs on all the 2006 House races with regular updates and analysis. His column, "On The Trail," is published Wednesdays.

How they're ranked:
Seats are ranked by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip).
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More race rankings:
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• WH 2008
(coming March 1)

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Disagree with Chuck? Then rank the top 2006 House races yourself. Remember, you're voting for which seats are most likely to change control, from one party to another. Or, view the latest reader results without voting.

As promised, we've expanded our race rankings to include the most vulnerable House seats (and, coming next week, the '08 presidential race). For the House rankings, we're picking the 25 seats most likely to change hands.

Not surprising, there are more Republican than Democratic seats on the list, including nine of the top 10. There's one very simple reason for this: Republicans have won about every seat they can in the last two cycles, meaning their priority for 2006 is playing defense. It's about preventing 15 or more losses, not picking up seats. In contrast, the Democrats have lost about every seat they can as long as they don't have any surprising retirements in the next few months

As one expert in House races noted when previewing our list, everything after number 15 is debatable. So expect to see a lot of movement in our top 25 in the bottom half as we get closer to the E-Day. – Chuck Todd

1. COLORADO-07 (Open-R) Bob Beauprez is running for governor

Even if Beauprez was running for re-election, this would be a top contest. But without him, it's pretty much the consensus choice for the most vulnerable House seat in the country. We still can't get over Beauprez' awful showing in a recent statewide poll that had him trailing the lesser-known Democrat. If Beauprez is this unpopular after all the money spent on his behalf, maybe Colorado is just moving away from the Republicans.

2. IOWA-01 (Open-R) Jim Nussle is running for governor

This district has voted Democratic in presidential elections since before Nussle took office. So Nussle's decision to run for governor makes it a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats. We smell split-ticket voting among Dems in the district, with Nussle benefitting in the governor's race but the Democratic nominee getting the help in the general.

3. FLORIDA-22 (Shaw-R)

Clay Shaw's political obituary has been written a number of times, but this is about as bad as it gets for him. He's facing his toughest Democratic foe yet in a district that is probably hyper-sensitive to the growing debacle that is the Medicare Rx plan.

4. OHIO-18 (Ney-R)

The GOP nominee is Bob Ney. Need we say more? Oh, we do? OK, the state's current governor, who was charged with multiple ethics misdemeanors, is also a Republican.

5. OHIO-06 (Open-D) Ted Strickland is running for governor

This is one of the few seats where we detect real GOP optimism. Due to the NRCC's track record, we're going to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. (The GOP is being helped by the current Democratic front-runner's problems qualifying for the ballot.) But we do wonder how any Ohio Republican will fare in November.

6. ARIZONA-08 (Open-R) Jim Kolbe is retiring

Another troublesome open seat where a longtime GOP incumbent has a stranglehold in a swing district.... Conventional wisdom says that in a year shaping up to favor the out party, Democrats should win open seats like this one. We tend to agree, yet we've been burned by overhyping Democratic chances in past Arizona House races. Nonetheless, for this race, Democrats are united while the GOP primary will be an ideological food fight.

7. PENNSYLVANIA-06 (Gerlach-R)

This rematch between Gerlach and Murphy should be a doozy. But Rendell's suburban-Philadelphia coattails could be Murphy's secret weapon to get over the hump.

8. TEXAS-22 (DeLay-R)

Here's a riddle we can't solve: What's the tougher hurdle for DeLay, re-election or re-nomination? Remember, primaries go to runoffs if no one gets 50 percent. Hint. Hint.

9. CONNECTICUT-02 (Simmons-R)

Another rematch (this one from the '02 cycle). Conventional wisdom says Simmons is in bigger trouble this time with his challenge from Courtney. But realize this: Simmons is about as experienced a campaigner as there is in the House GOP caucus. And he just doesn't make truly indefensible votes.

10. INDIANA-09 (Sodrel-R)

We'll admit it: We're always hesitant to overrate former members' chances at reclaiming their old seats. For each lawmaker who makes it back, we can count five who did not. Our current top 25 features four races where a former member is trying to win back an old seat. We'd be shocked if more than one actually succeeds. But for this race, realize that Indiana Democrats perform better during off-years.

11. NEW MEXICO-01 (Wilson-R)

We swear we've written this in years past, but if the Democrats can't get Heather Wilson this cycle, forget it. The Democratic statewide ticket is stacked while the GOP side is very weak. On top of that, the Democrats have their best recruit yet in Madrid. Just like in Arizona, we've been burned by this race a number of times.

12. KENTUCKY-04 (Davis-R)

See Ind.-09. In any case, we can't ignore initial Democrat polling, which shows Ken Lucas already ahead of Geoff Davis. And the GOP brand is getting killed right now in the Cincinnati media market, which might offset the automatic GOP advantage this district gives to Davis.

13. VERMONT-AT LARGE (Open-I) Bernard Sanders is running for Senate

No other state puts people above party more than Vermont. For that reason alone, we have to give the slight edge to the GOP right now, thanks to its recruiting of Martha Rainville. Whether she can de-GOP-ify herself enough to get elected to replace Bernie Sanders is a real challenge -- but with Sanders on his way to winning in a walk, Vermont voters might be susceptible to splitting their D.C. vote.

14. GEORGIA-08 (Marshall-D)

(Formerly the 3rd District,; redistricted to the 8th.) See Ind.-09. That said, redistricting has made this a much tougher seat for Jim Marshall to defend. And we hear Mac Collins has been far more aggressive on the fundraising circuit than he was for his '04 Senate bid.

15. ILLINOIS-08 (Bean-D)

Did Melissa Bean win a seat that is slowly trending Democrat in 2004, or did Phil Crane simply wear out his welcome? We'll find out.

16. GEORGIA-12 (Barrow-D)

See Ind.-09 and Ga.-03 and -08. Finally, realize that in this race, while Barrow lost some of his personal base, it's certainly Democratic enough to keep him in Congress. It's not as Democratic as when he won it from Burns in '04, but maybe just enough...

17. IOWA-03 (Boswell-D)

If this were going to be a better year nationally for the GOP, we'd probably rank this race higher. Democrat Leonard Boswell has been mostly AWOL the last few months due to health problems. Republican Lamberti is, by far, the best recruit the GOP's ever come up with against the Boz. Should Nussle run strong in the governor race, Lamberti could sneak in.

18. INDIANA-08 (Hostettler-R)

Every year, Republican Hostettler looks like he's just not doing enough to hold this swing seat and every year, he bails it out. But the Democrats have a solid recruit in Ellsworth, who, in our eyes, has a better resume than any war veteran: Ellsworth is in local law enforcement, and those credentials might do more to sell the public on an agenda that includes "cleaning up Congress."

19. PENNSYLVANIA-08 (Fitzpatrick-R)

Patrick Murphy -- one of the two most-hyped Democratic Iraq vets -- is running in the district held by freshman Republican Fitzgerald. Bucks County is still a Republican bastion in a state that keeps voting Democrat in some statewide races, so Murphy has his work cut out for him.

20. WISCONSIN-08 (Open-R) Mark Green is running for governor

Classic swing seat in the Midwest in the heart of Packer country. Republicans, nationally, are uniting behind John Gard. The leading Democrat appears to be Nancy Nusbaum, although she doesn't have nearly the national support that the GOP is giving Gard. Wisconsin primaries always get more competitive than they seem at first, so we're cautious about anointing anyone at all.

21. ILLINOIS-06 (Open-R) Henry Hyde is retiring

With Paul Hackett no longer running for any office, Tammy Duckworth may officially be the military veteran getting the most ink for '06. But Republican Roskam is no slouch, and this district is still GOP-leaning.

22. NORTH CAROLINA-11 (Taylor-R)

How Charlie Taylor is still holding this seat is beyond us. Then again, it's the first cycle in which the DCCC seemed to take recruiting seriously in the district, and it has a well-known (but green) candidate in former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler. If the race is about corruption, Shuler wins; if it's ideology, Taylor wins.

23. CONNECTICUT-04 (Shays-R)

Yet another rematch -- the sixth in the top 25. Can national climate be enough to erase Chris Shays' personal bonds with the voters he's created over the years? Diane Farrell is the real deal and would be a heavy favorite in an open seat.

24. TEXAS-17 (Edwards-D)

Beating Chet Edwards has proven to be one of the few things the NRCC has yet to do successfully. It's targeted him on and off for over a decade and always come up short. Republicans are very high on their own military vet, Van Taylor, and if he gets out of the primary, we'll start buying into the hype.

25. LOUISIANA-03 (Melancon-D)

Each time we rank the top 25 House races, we'll reserve our "25" spot for a wild card race -- one that may not actually be the 25th most vulnerable but could be intriguing nonetheless. For this debut list, we're featuring the Katrina ravaged district represented by Charlie Melancon. Questions no one has answers to: Did more Dems or Republicans flee the district? Did more Dems or Republicans return? Will displaced voters vote? Will Billy Tauzin II or III support the Republican efforts to win this district if Craig Romero is the nominee? Those stories and more on another episode of As Louisiana Turns...

What districts should have been included? Which district would you like to see featured in our Wild Card "25" slot? Let us know.

-- Chuck Todd is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor and editor in chief of The Hotline. His e-mail address is ctodd@nationaljournal.com.

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