2008 Senate Race Rankings
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2008
Senate Republicans can point to a few snippets of good news from the past few months, but the 2008 map remains as lopsided as ever in favor of the Democrats. There's no denying that three Republican seats (Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) would probably fall to the Democrats if the election were held tomorrow, with one or two more GOP seats teetering on the edge of the knife. Meanwhile, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu remains the only vulnerable Democrat (although Republicans are keeping an eye on a couple more states just in case).
Perhaps the best news for the GOP is that blue-state Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Gordon Smith, R-Ore., haven't been softened up yet and still appear to be in fairly solid shape.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip) and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Roll over state names for links to more news about that particular race, available to Hotline subscribers only.
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The Top Ten
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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1
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VIRGINIA
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Open Seat (R-Warner)
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Last Ranking: 1
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Many observers have declared this race over before it begins, and the fundraising disparity between former Govs. Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner has done nothing to dispel that notion. Last year's state legislative election results certainly indicated that today's Virginia is far different from the commonwealth that elected Gilmore 10 years ago. As of now, the GOP's limited resources are likely to be funneled toward other states.
Tip Sheet
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2
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NEW MEXICO
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Open Seat (R-Domenici)
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Last Ranking: --
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Based on early polling, Democrat Tom Udall is already overperforming, even in parts of the state that he doesn't currently represent, and he can fairly be described as the front-runner. The GOP field has been low-key so far, though one assumes whichever Republican is trailing close to primary day won't stay quiet about his or her opponent.
Tip Sheet
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3
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NEW HAMPSHIRE
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John Sununu (R)
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Last Ranking: 2
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Sununu continues to trail Jeanne Shaheen by double digits and was even outraised by her last quarter. He still has a cash advantage, but she'll presumably receive a lot more help from national Democrats than he will from the NRSC. If Sununu wins, it'll be the biggest come-from-behind win by a Senate incumbent since Jesse Helms won re-election in 1984 (which is exactly what we were saying about Rick Santorum two years ago).
Tip Sheet
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4
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COLORADO
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Open Seat (R-Allard)
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Last Ranking: 3
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Isn't this a state that's just waiting for third-party groups to come in and define the two candidates before they can define themselves?
Tip Sheet
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5
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LOUISIANA
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Mary Landrieu (D)
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Last Ranking: 4
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Last year's elections proved Democrats can still win statewide, but their New Orleans base has undeniably taken a hit. Landrieu has never won by big margins before, but after two terms, it's possible she has entrenched herself more than she had six years ago.
Tip Sheet
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6
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MINNESOTA
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Norm Coleman (R)
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Last Ranking: 5
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This is still the only state that hasn't voted Republican for president since 1972. Despite the success of GOP governors, Minnesota still "wants" to be blue most years. Indeed, even though Republicans have won two Senate races here since 1988, both were with less than 50 percent of the vote. In those terms, it's undeniable that Norm Coleman is quite vulnerable. On the other hand, it remains to be seen how well the DFL nominee will be positioned to take advantage of those weaknesses this fall.
Tip Sheet
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7
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MAINE
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Susan Collins (R)
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Last Ranking: 6
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Yes, this is New England, but Susan Collins doesn't appear to be getting dragged down by her GOP party affiliation -- yet. Rep. Tom Allen still has time to chip away at her, but polling taken last fall suggests she starts in a strong position.
Tip Sheet
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8
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OREGON
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Gordon Smith (R)
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Last Ranking: 7
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Despite the best efforts of some establishment Democrats, this just isn't a race where they have a de facto nominee. Ergo, it's going to be a few more months until they can truly put the focus on Gordon Smith.
Tip Sheet
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9
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ALASKA
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Ted Stevens (R)
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Last Ranking: 9
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Machiavelli once said, "Men ought either to be indulged or utterly destroyed." Local Democrats are eyeing Ted Stevens' seat with that thought in mind. A living legend like Stevens is not someone to be taken lightly; if you're going to do it, you'd better be in the game to win. Given the legal limbo Stevens currently inhabits, this may be a very late-developing race.
Tip Sheet
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10
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MISSISSIPPI
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Roger Wicker (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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The GOP got a bit of good news when the special election was pushed back to Nov. 4. Democrats will be competitive here, but Wicker will share the ballot with Thad Cochran, and it's been over 40 years since any state's voters elected senators of different parties on the same day (Last time: South Carolina in 1966).
Tip Sheet
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The Rest
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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11
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KENTUCKY
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Mitch McConnell (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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13
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NEW JERSEY
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Frank Lautenberg (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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15
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NEBRASKA
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Open Seat (R-Hagel)
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Last Ranking: 8
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16
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TEXAS
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John Cornyn (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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17
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OKLAHOMA
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James Inhofe (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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18
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MONTANA
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Max Baucus (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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19
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IOWA
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Tom Harkin (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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20
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IDAHO
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Open Seat (R-Craig)
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Last Ranking: --
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21
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GEORGIA
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Saxby Chambliss (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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23
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ALABAMA
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Jeff Sessions (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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24
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ARKANSAS
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Mark Pryor (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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26
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MICHIGAN
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Carl Levin (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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28
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ILLINOIS
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Richard Durbin (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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29
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KANSAS
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Pat Roberts (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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30
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TENNESSEE
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Lamar Alexander (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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31
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DELAWARE
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Joseph Biden (D)
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Last Ranking: --
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33
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WYOMING
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John Barrasso (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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34
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WYOMING
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Michael Enzi (R)
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Last Ranking: --
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