Every Republican in this race knows that the '08 election will be a referendum on Iraq, and President Bush will be a ghostly presence on the ballot. For the next six months -- at least -- it'll be hard to talk about anything else. If you bracket Iraq, though, you start to see a very interesting dynamic shaping up between Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. Sam Brownback.

(A note: starting today, each ranking – Democrats and Republicans -- will be updated every two weeks. So we’ll do the Democrats next week.)

These rankings are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. As always, they are done in coordination with Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder.

REPUBLICANS

1.	John McCain	Arizona senator	Last Ranking: 1
His two best states -- Michigan and South Carolina -- are on deck. He can afford a loss in South Carolina, but he needs to manage expectations carefully. He also needs to raise a lot of money very quickly and staff up in the Feb. 5 states. Almanac Profile

2.	Mitt Romney	Former Massachusetts governor	Last Ranking: tied for 2
He vaults back into contention if he wins Michigan. Almanac Profile

3.	Rudy Giuliani	Former New York City mayor	Last Ranking: tied for 2
If only by dint of the DuHaime delegate strategy, he is alive. And his absentee ballot program in Florida is said to be excellent.

4.	Sam Brownback	Kansas senator	Last Ranking: 5
There's no real reason to rank him any more. Almanac Profile

5.	Newt Gingrich	Former House speaker	Last Ranking: 4
Maybe this is the last time we'll rank him for a while. If he endorses Rudy, it'll be a big deal. Or does he endorse Thompson, as Mary Matalin predicted? Either way, Newt is a decent "get" as far as endorsements are concerned, but Thompson appears to have sucked the oxygen out of the room for any bid of his own.

6.	Mike Huckabee	Former Arkansas governor	Last Ranking: 6
Narrowcasting won't do, but the pivot to economic anxiety could be his hook after South Carolina, which, by the way, he needs to win. Almanac Profile

7.	Chuck Hagel	Nebraska senator	Last Ranking: 7
Hamlet. Seriously. He did a ton of damage to his credibility among the most important constituency he had been cultivating over the last 10 years: the media. Fundraising projection and ranking: n/a. Almanac Profile

8.	Tommy Thompson	Former Wisconsin governor	Last Ranking: tied for 8
Rambling answers on Iraq did little justice to the guy with the second-best resumé out there. Was he really a governor for more than a decade? He didn't seem nearly as quick on his feet as he should have been.

9.	Frank Keating	Former Oklahoma governor	Last Ranking: tied for 8
Americans love life insurance, right? Well...

10.	Jim Gilmore	Former Virginia governor	Last Ranking: tied for 8
Hasn't he made himself irrelevant in Virginia politics now? If this bid doesn't take off soon, then he could hurt his statewide future.

11.	Duncan Hunter	California congressman	Last Ranking: --
No change. Almanac Profile

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