July 1, 2024, 2:37 p.m.
The two official House campaign committees and major super PACs released their initial round of TV and digital ad reservations, the first major signal of each party’s priorities five months from the election.
Operatives in both parties anticipate the race for the House to be fought tooth and nail, and the reservations outlined by the four major organizations indicate a small battlefield. The House majority could come down to a handful of seats.
The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC set the pace across the groups with a $186 million initial ad buy, including $146 million on broadcast television. Its counterpart across the aisle, the Congressional Leadership Fund, put up $141 million across broadcast, digital, and cable platforms.
On the official side, the National Republican Congressional Committee placed $45.7 million in what it calls an “offensive buy.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee booked $22.8 million in initial spending with a focus on shoring up its incumbents.
Los Angeles and New York City, unsurprisingly, saw the most outside reservations of any media market, and by a substantial margin. Leaders in both parties have said from the beginning of the cycle that the majority runs through New York and California, as competitive seats abound in the two expensive markets. Voters in Los Angeles will be inundated with nearly $40 million worth of advertisements, while New York City was not far behind at $39 million.
Aside from a few clues in memos outlining strategy, it’s not fully clear which districts the money will go toward. The reservations are for specific media markets, without an earmark for congressional districts yet. Some media markets, like Los Angeles and New York, have several competitive seats on both sides of the aisle. CLF signaled it will go on TV in New York’s 17th and 18th districts, as well as California’s 27th District. The NRCC similarly outlined a buy in the 27th but also in New York’s 4th. The committees, due to a firewall, won’t even see the independent expenditures until shortly before they air.
Outside of the two major coastal markets, all eyes will be on Portland, Oregon, as the media market plays host to two hypercompetitive seats. Republicans are tasked with defending freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a race Democrats squandered in 2022 but are keen on winning back. Democrats played in the primary to block the progressive 2022 nominee from winning again. Across the Columbia River, Democrats have to defend Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, in a seat Republicans similarly botched by nominating a controversial conservative. The groups have booked more than $20 million in the market, with HMP pacing the field at $9.5 million.
Portland is also home to two Democratic-held seats closely watched by Republicans, and spending could be directed to defend Reps. Val Hoyle and Andrea Salinas, should their races become competitive. Republicans aren’t writing off Hoyle due to corruption issues as a state employee, but GOP candidate quality–in both seats—may ultimately put these seats to bed.
The DCCC finally gets involved in the big spending in Detroit, the No. 4 spot on the list. All four groups are in on Detroit, which has a hypercompetitive seat left open by Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s Senate bid. Democrats are eager to keep it in blue hands after it was the most expensive House race in the county in 2022. Republicans think Democrats can’t replicate Slotkin’s fundraising abilities and have a top pickup opportunity in a seat President Biden carried by just a point. Detroit also houses Republican Rep. John James’s seat, a potential offensive opportunity for Democrats. It was one of the closest races in the country in 2022, but Democrats have struggled to keep pace with James’s cash machine.
There’s a notable dearth of cash in Las Vegas, where three Democrats are seeking reelection in competitive seats. Republicans spent huge in Vegas in 2022 only to come up empty, a show of force by Nevada legislative Democrats, who successfully gerrymandered the map. HMP put $6.8 million down on blue just in case, and Republicans could still come online later in the cycle, but the rates will only get more expensive as the battle for the presidency and Senate runs through the Silver State.
Gone are the days of a competitive Florida, where no organization put down a dime following a successful gerrymander by Republicans last cycle. Democrats are targeting two Republicans in the Tampa and Miami areas, and Republicans have their eyes on an Orlando seat, but candidates shouldn’t expect outside help right now, unless an abortion-rights initiative unexpectedly puts seats in play.
Both parties have vested interest in Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes’s Akron-based seat. Republicans see it as a top pickup opportunity and have cut $5.4 million worth of ads in Cleveland, while Democrats put close to $5 million down. Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin has struggled to keep up with Sykes’s cash on hand, so he may need all the outside help he can get if he wants to unseat Sykes.
