Aug. 15, 2024, 11:50 a.m.
2022 GOV nominee Kari Lake (R), in her second statewide campaign in Arizona, hopes she can secure her first win in November—and Senate Republicans believe she can get the job done on the second try.
A new internal poll (July 31-Aug. 5; 800 LVs; +/-3.0%) commissioned by the NRSC and shared exclusively with Hotline found Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ 03) tied in the race to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). The poll, conducted by Peak Insights, found Lake and Gallego at 46% each with 8% undecided.
The same poll found former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris statistically tied in a three-way contest with anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I). Trump received 44%, Harris received 42%, and Kennedy Jr. got 11% with 3% undecided.
The NRSC told donors in June the race was “an absolute toss-up,” arguing their own polling showed the race statistically tied. Lake’s campaign also released an internal poll of its own last month, showing Lake and Gallego within the margin of error.
However, Lake has not led Gallego outside the margin of error in any publicly released polls. In addition, Gallego has outrun the Democratic presidential ticket—with both President Biden and Harris—in several polls, indicating Lake’s efforts to tout her connection to Trump aren’t fully working at the moment. In a newly released Cook Political Report with Amy Walter/BSG/GS Strategy Group poll in the state, Gallego led Lake, 51%-42%, as Harris and Trump were within the margin of error, 48%-46%.
On the other hand, neither of the candidates have taken the polling numbers as word of law. Both Gallego and Lake have sought to drift their campaigns toward the center, distancing themselves from their past comments as both weaponize them against each other.
Gallego, who teased a primary challenge from the left for months against Sinema before she switched parties, has virtually abandoned his “progressive” label, silently ending his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus last year and hardening his stance on immigration and border security.
Lake, who unabashedly channeled Trumpism and the MAGA movement in her first statewide run, has attempted to make amends with moderate Republicans she berated, extending an “olive branch” in her words. Lake has also made it a note to highlight her support for in-vitro fertilization as well as her opposition to a federal abortion ban—especially as she runs in a state where abortion is directly on the ballot. Although, Lake still hasn’t acknowledged her loss in the 2022 governor’s race, continuing her efforts to overturn the results of the election in court.
The Senate race will undoubtedly be competitive in November, and both candidates have time to court the state’s lucrative independent voters—a voting bloc Lake lost by 7 points in 2022 according to exit polls. Lake will need to make significant gains with the demographic in the coming months if she wants to chip away at Gallego’s edge and avoid another loss in the state.
— Nicholas Anastácio
nanastacio@nationaljournal.com
