Aug. 15, 2024, 7:21 p.m.
In April 2023, North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham announced she was switching parties from Democrat to Republican—a move that further eroded her former party’s already precarious political footing in state government and handed Republicans a supermajority.
Cotham’s decision allowed Republicans to quickly restrict abortion access in the state. In a little over a month’s time, GOP state lawmakers passed a 12-week abortion ban, drastically reducing the window from the previous state law that granted access until 20 weeks. Despite the fact that Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed the ban, Republicans voted to override his rejection.
The scenario underscores just how fragile abortion access is depending on the political winds in a post-Roe world, particularly in electoral battlegrounds. The passage of the 12-week ban due to such a slight shift in power inspired educator Beth Helfrich to run in House District 98, located in the north end of Mecklenburg County. Helfrich is hoping to flip the GOP-held district.
“I was bracing myself for the potential of harmful legislation coming out of our General Assembly. And sure enough, it did not take very long for there to be a number of veto overrides, including North Carolina's abortion ban,” Helfrich told National Journal. “I can't think of anything more important to do than flip the seat in my district and break the supermajority.”
Helfrich is just one of the candidates on the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee’s list of “Spotlight Races” that could pave the way for increased power in state government. North Carolina Democrats such as Helfrich have a tall task ahead this cycle. The party wants to hold the governor’s mansion, after term-limited Cooper steps down. State Attorney General Josh Stein, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, has vowed to be a stopgap against any further restrictions on reproductive rights coming from Republicans in the legislature. His ability to make good on that promise, however, is tied to the fate of this year’s state legislative races.
“The fear is that the 12-week ban is just a first step—that they're going to go to six weeks, which is an effective total ban, or they will go straight to a total ban,” Stein told National Journal. “And as the governor of North Carolina, I will not allow that to happen.”
Stein stressed that abortion is on the ballot this year—and that further GOP restrictions are a real threat, especially if his opponent, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, takes the helm of state government.
“If Robinson is elected, there is great risk that women will lose all access to abortion care in North Carolina,” Stein said. “We are the southernmost state in the country in which a woman can access an abortion after six weeks. That right is at grave risk under a Mark Robinson governorship.”
Robinson’ positions on abortion have run the gamut from saying that the procedure should be banned “for any reason,” to supporting a six-week ban, to blaming those who seek abortion for not being “responsible enough to keep your skirt down.” Recently, Robinson cut an ad in which he appeared to soften his stance by leaving the impression that he would uphold the state's current 12-week ban.
Stein isn’t buying it.
“His views are among the most radical views held,” the Democrat said of his opponent. “So he's trying to hide the fact that he is an abortion-banning absolutist.”
In a statement to National Journal, Robinson spokesperson Michael Lonergan said that “the legislature has already spoken on this issue,” but did not give specifics about what restrictions Robinson himself would support.
“As governor, Mark Robinson will work to make North Carolina a destination for life by building a culture that does more to support women and families, including bolstering adoption, as well as foster and childcare,” Lonergan said.
The contest between Stein and Robinson is the most competitive governor’s race in the country. Public polling since July has shown Stein pulling away a bit. While it’s hard to know why exactly Stein has the wind at his back, voters across the country have routinely supported expanding or maintaining legal protections when abortion has been explicitly on the ballot. Despite positive polls, Stein says he isn’t getting too comfortable.
“We're just going to work hard. That's how you win elections in North Carolina,” he said. “I've had the good fortune of running eight times, maybe nine times now. I've never lost an election. You work hard, you listen to voters, and you tell them what you're about, and if you do that, they'll reward you.”
If Stein and other Democrats’ hard work pays off and the best-case scenario emerges for the party—Stein is elected and Democrats do away with the GOP supermajority—addressing abortion in the state is still an uphill climb, Helfrich said.
“Unfortunately, in North Carolina, we really do have to embrace the long game,” she said.
