Sept. 5, 2024, 11:30 a.m.
Two weeks after Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) dropped her bid to consolidate the GOP field, Republicans released the first poll of the updated race for the state’s lone House seat.
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AL) and 2022 candidate Nick Begich (R) were in a statistical tie, as Peltola led Begich within the margin of error, 38%-35%. With leaners, Peltola and Begich were at 46% and 45%, respectively.
The Cygnal survey, shared exclusively with Hotline, was in the field from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1 and polled 400 likely general-election voters. The margin of error was 4.86%. It was commissioned by the NRCC and the Begich campaign.
A top concern for some Republicans after Dahlstrom, former President Trump's pick, dropped was Begich’s favorability in one of the most competitive races in the country. He ran in 2022 and his family has a long history with Alaskan politics over the decades.
“The Begich family has a, shall we say, checkered past politically, and that has drawn some to conclude that he is of the same cloth,” District 6 Chairman George Hall told Hotline last month. “That is not the case.”
The poll supports Hall’s assertion, as Begich maintained a net favorability of +10—47% favorable and 37% unfavorable. Nearly 12% had no opinion and 5% had never heard of Begich. Republicans are optimistic Begich’s image has room to grow, while arguing Peltola has less runway to define herself. Peltola was at 51% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Just 4% had no opinion and 3% had never heard of her. In March, a Data for Progress poll had Peltola’s net favorability at +10, while Begich’s was zero.
At the presidential level, former President Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points, 53%-43%. Trump carried the state by about 10 points in 2020.
Democratic operatives told Hotline Peltola’s biggest headwind will likely be the top of the ticket, where she’ll have to significantly outrun Harris in order to win. However, she has a massive financial advantage over Begich, with more than $3 million on hand as of the last FEC filing period, and has been able to chart an independent streak since her election in 2022.
The memo did not share a ranked-choice ballot test, but the race is seen as a head-to-head since Dahlstrom dropped. The top four vote-getters in Alaska’s primary advance to the general election, regardless of party. Dahlstrom finished third, then withdrew shortly after. The two other candidates in Alaska’s unique top-four system are seen as minor candidates, though one has liberal leanings and the other chairs the Alaska Independence Party.
The race is a must-win for both parties as Republicans seek to expand their majority and Democrats try to claw back the gavel. GOP groups have reserved millions of dollars worth of TV time in the Last Frontier, and the NRCC has been on the air twice. It released its latest ad against Peltola this week.
— James A. Downs
jdowns@nationaljournal.com
