Sept. 5, 2024, 6 p.m.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says his government needs “new energy.”
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began nearly 31 months ago and shows few signs of ending soon. Most military analysts expect the war to continue throughout the remainder of this year and quite possibly into next year. Russian troops have continued to pummel much of the country with deadly missile strikes, targeting both civilians and critical infrastructure. Ukrainians expect to spend another frigid winter fighting off attacks against the country’s energy supply.
Nevertheless, there are reasons to believe the war might enter a new phase soon. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November could bring significant changes in international support for Kyiv, and it’s unclear which side those changes would favor. With that in mind, Zelensky has pursued two avenues to alter the course of the war ahead of autumn: a bold invasion of Russia’s Kursk region and the most significant government shake-up since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Ukraine’s high-profile foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, offered his resignation on Wednesday. Others who tendered their resignations to parliament this week include: Olha Stefanishyna, deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration; Oleksandr Kamyshin, minister for strategic industries; Justice Minister Denys Malyuska; and the deputy prime minister overseeing the occupied territories, Iryna Vereshchuk.
Rumors had been circulating for months that a major Cabinet reshuffle was imminent. In his evening address Tuesday, Zelensky argued that the government needed revamping to reinvigorate the war effort.
“Autumn will be extremely important for Ukraine, and our state institutions must be set up in such a way that Ukraine will achieve the results we need for all of us,” Zelensky said. “To do this, we need to strengthen some areas in the government, and personnel decisions have been prepared.”
By Thursday, some of those who resigned had already landed new jobs. Stefanishnya will be Ukraine’s new justice minister and the deputy prime minister for European integration. Kamyshin will join the president’s office as an adviser to Zelensky.
“It’s an attempt to reenergize the government. They strengthened some of the existing forces, reshuffled some old forces out, and some Bankova people are now part of the Cabinet,” said Mattia Nelles, a political scientist and expert on Ukrainian politics, referring to the seat of power in Kyiv. “The hold of Bankova over the Cabinet is strengthened.”
Andrii Sybiha, the first deputy foreign minister, will likely replace Kuleba, who became a popular figure with foreign governments over the last four years as minister. It’s still unclear what Kuleba will do next.
“Kuleba is not a member of Zelensky’s inner circle and has had friction with Zelensky’s all-powerful chief-of-staff [Andriy] Yermak,” said Melinda Haring, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington and an expert on Ukraine. “I’ve lost track of the number of times Kuleba was about to be fired.”
Some members of the Ukrainian opposition have argued that the reshuffle is meant to solidify loyalty to Zelensky and Yermak in the Cabinet. Others say the Cabinet reshuffle is a standard way to foster trust within government.
The shake-up took place on the heels of a spate of horrific missile attacks on Ukraine, both in Poltava and the Western city of Lviv. At least 51 people died in missile strikes in Poltava on Tuesday. Seven people died in a separate attack in Lviv, including three children.
Many Ukrainians are ready for the war to end. A June opinion poll from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that around one-third of respondents would be willing to give up some territory if it would end Russia’s invasion, an increase compared to previous polling.
With this in mind, Zelensky has signaled that Ukraine plans to hold territory in Russia’s Kursk region indefinitely to strengthen Kyiv’s position ahead of potential peace negotiations and potentially force Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. Ukraine has seized control of numerous villages in Russia’s Kursk region and imprisoned hundreds of Russian soldiers since Aug. 6. Ukraine has now occupied more Russian territory this year than Moscow has managed to wrest from Kyiv. The operation has also boosted morale and contributed to the impression that Ukraine isn’t losing the war after all.
“It’s also been a long, rough period in terms of morale. Ukraine hasn’t had much to celebrate apart from its stunning record in the Black Sea. A country without a navy has destroyed multiple Russian navy vessels and forced Russia’s navy to seek safer harbor in a more protected port in Crimea,” Haring said. “The recent seizure of Russian territory gives Ukrainians a boost as they gear up for the most difficult winter of war to come.”
Still, some Ukrainians have expressed frustration with the Kursk offensive, arguing that Ukrainian troops should defend the smaller urban centers in Eastern Ukraine that Russia is on the precipice of overtaking. Russia has dedicated very few troops to fighting off the Ukrainian presence in Kursk. It now appears as if two separate military campaigns are taking place simultaneously, with Ukrainian soldiers solidifying their control in Russia and Russian troops focusing their efforts on Eastern Ukraine.
Russia could soon take the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian military hub in the Donetsk oblast. John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said Russia has a limited number of competent forces it can use on the battlefield and has decided to direct those to Ukraine’s East rather than defend its citizens in Kursk.
“Capturing Pokrovsk would be a notable victory for the Russians, albeit not a decisive one,” Herbst said. “At the same time, Putin is taking real hits at home for the Kursk offensive. You have on social media citizens of Belgorod, Oblast, and Kursk complaining about how the military has done nothing to defend them.”
“Putin is trying to downplay it, but I’m not certain how successful that downplaying is,” Herbst added. “There are hostile forces on Russian territory for the first time since World War II.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine has been pushing the U.S. for permission to strike military targets deep inside Russia, arguing that is the only way to end the war. Herbst, who visited Ukraine last week, said there is no indication that Washington is ready to permit Kyiv to use U.S.-provided weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia. Washington has so far only allowed Ukraine to strike military targets directly across the Russian border from the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
“It took them too long to permit Ukraine to strike into Russia after the carnage visited upon Kharkiv. We agreed, but we limited it,” Herbst said. “I know there was a real push around the NATO summit, but it failed, and the policy hasn’t changed since.”
