What to watch in New Hampshire’s primaries

Voters head to the polls Tuesday in New Hampshire on the final day of primaries across the country.

The gubernatorial race leads the ticket, as Gov. Chris Sununu’s retirement has created an open race that both Democrats and Republicans covet. The campaign in the Granite State is considered one of the most competitive this cycle, and also Democrats’ best opportunity for a pickup at the gubernatorial level.

Down the ballot, the general elections are less competitive, but both congressional seats play host to competitive primaries. Another retirement—from Democratic Rep. Ann McLane Kuster—left a seat open, while Republicans will select their nominee from a crowded field to take on Rep. Chris Pappas. Both seats are targeted by Republicans, but handicappers expect the seats to remain in Democratic hands when the dust settles. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC reserved TV time in both markets, should the races find themselves competitive.

Governor’s race

Sununu endorsed former Sen. Kelly Ayotte in the GOP primary, a move that only reinforced her long-standing front-runner status against former state Senate President Chuck Morse. Ayotte has consistently led Morse in available public polling by comfortable margins. Most recently, a University of New Hampshire poll found Ayotte leading Morse by 44 points. Despite Morse’s efforts to chip into Ayotte’s lead by questioning her conservatism on topics like immigration, Ayotte’s structural advantages—including high name ID and an edge in fundraising—have proven unshakable. New Hampshire strategists from both parties agreed that unless pigs fly, Ayotte will become the Republican nominee tasked with keeping the governorship in her party’s hands.

By contrast, New Hampshire political strategists said that predicting the outcome of the Democratic contest between former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is a harder task. Craig was considered the early front-runner, thanks to her edge in available polling and fundraising. But as the gloves have come off in the closing months, polling of the race has tightened. While her lead in the polls remains, the most recent survey from the University of New Hampshire also suggests that a significant number of voters—23 percent—remain undecided ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

In a possible attempt to win the undecided voters who are tuning in late to the race, both Craig and Warmington have gone on offense. Craig was the first to go on the attack, centering her attacks on Warmington’s previous lobbying work for Purdue Pharma, whose aggressive marketing strategies have been linked to the ongoing opioid crisis that has hit the state hard. Warmington has returned attacks against Craig on some of the issues that gripped Manchester during her tenure—including crime, homelessness, and drug abuse.

Craig has also had to shoulder continued attacks from Republicans that mirror the criticisms from Warmington. The Live Free PAC, which is funded by the Republican Governors Association, has donated $2.8 million to the Ayotte campaign, allowing her to hit the airwaves against Craig and counter Democratic attacks.

Regardless of which Democrat makes it out of the primary, New Hampshire political strategists expect the general election to be one of the most competitive and bitter races in recent memory. Democrats are expected to continue to point out Ayotte’s record on reproductive rights and highlight Ayotte’s newfound support for former President Trump, despite withdrawing support for him in 2016 following the release of the Access Hollywood tape. Republicans, meanwhile, anticipate continuing the attacks Democrats have waged against one another in the general election against whomever becomes the nominee.

“I think this is going to be a very negative campaign in the general election, no matter who the Democratic nominee is,” former state Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan, who supports Craig, told National Journal.

“I'm viewing this as a race where nobody knows who the candidates are,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Frankly, they are largely unknown.”

Noveletsky is the only candidate to have eclipsed six figures on TV ads, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. She started airing an ad last week, but it’s unclear how much of a difference it will make. The UNH poll from mid-August had her at 27 percent name recognition.

The primary has seen some attacks lobbed in all directions, but Prescott—who has run a positive campaign—said that the tactic is unproductive.

“When Republicans trash another Republican, what do we get? We get a very fractured party for the last eight weeks of the campaign,” Prescott said in an interview with National Journal. “Every single time against Chris Pappas, we have been fractured by sore and hard feelings.”

Operatives in D.C. and New Hampshire largely agree: It’s anybody’s game. One GOP strategist cautioned that fortune tends to favor the MAGA, noting that Levasseur's outward fealty to Trump and base in Manchester, which anchors the district, could prove pivotal in a jump-ball election.

Whoever emerges will face a steep climb against Pappas, especially as it looks like Vice President Kamala Harris will fare well in the Granite State. If Trump can’t contest the swingy New England state, Pappas will likely be on his way to another term.

2nd Congressional District

Kuster’s surprise retirement left open a seat in the western district. Republicans are targeting the seat, but it is likely to stay in Democratic hands, especially since Harris has become the Democratic nominee for president.

Colin Van Ostern, the 2016 Democratic nominee for governor, is facing former Justice Department official Maggie Goodlander in what has become a vitriolic primary.

Goodlander has raised more money than Van Ostern and also has the backing of VoteVets, a super PAC supporting veterans. The group ran an ad criticizing Van Ostern for his business record, devolving the race into negativity.

The ad prompted a response from the Van Ostern campaign: Kuster taped a spot for Van Ostern, who has managed Kuster’s campaigns before, slamming Goodlander for carpetbagging and donating to “pro-life Republicans.”

Goodlander told National Journal the attacks were “hurtful” but that she remains focused on issues.

“I don't own the political-operatives playbook that says attack your opponent when your opponent has momentum,” Goodlander said. “We've got a lot of work to do. So it has not been hard for me to stay focused on the actual issues, and that's exactly what we've been doing.”

UNH’s Smith said “negative ads are designed to suppress turnout” and that, as a result, both sides see the race as particularly close. Goodlander has led in recent UNH, Saint Anselm, and partisan polls, but, as in the GOP primary in the eastern district, a large percentage remained unsure.

Goodlander has also leaned into abortion rights, telling her own story of losing her child at 20 weeks pregnant, calling Van Ostern and Kuster’s claim “disgraceful” in an ad of her own.

The winner takes on either perennial candidate Lily Tang Williams or Vikram Mansharamani, who ran for Senate in 2022, from the GOP primary.