Sept. 12, 2024, 4:24 p.m.
During the first week of July, as many members of Congress left Washington to spend time in their districts, a bipartisan congressional delegation from the U.S. Helsinki Commission landed in the tiny country of Armenia.
Sens. Ben Cardin and Roger Wicker spearheaded the trip. Sen. John Cornyn, a Texan running to be the next Republican Senate leader, and Reps. Joe Wilson, Robert Aderholt, Richard Hudson, Trent Kelly, and Andy Harris joined them. The lawmakers met with officials from the Armenian government, the Armenian parliament, and members of civil society. When they returned to Washington, they were convinced that Armenia was laying the groundwork to move away from Russia’s sphere of influence and closer to the West.
“It’s a country that wants to determine its own future,” Cardin said Tuesday during a Helsinki Commission hearing on Armenia’s shift Westward. The lawmakers were “impressed with how Armenia has changed in a relatively short period of time and how they’re struggling with the challenges of their region,” Cardin added, stressing that the country has a “thirst for democracy and good governance.”
Another large group of House lawmakers attended Tuesday’s bicameral hearing on Capitol Hill. Reps. Wilson, Steve Cohen, Marc Veasey, Emanuel Cleaver, and Victoria Spartz spent ample time questioning the experts testifying. Many stressed the need to help Armenia reduce its dependence on Russia.
“There is clear bipartisan support for the United States to step up in its support for Armenia assistance, both economic and political,” Wilson said. “We’ll help solidify Armenian democratic gains, strengthen its institutions, and provide a bulwark against external threats.”
Yerevan’s attempt to turn Westward has long seemed implausible. Armenia is a tiny, landlocked country surrounded by hostile giants. Two of its four borders, those with Turkey and Azerbaijan, are closed. Armenia has fought several wars with Azerbaijan in recent years, and neighboring Turkey has been quick to supply Baku with advanced weaponry, including drones, to fight Armenia.
Given this fraught security landscape, Armenia has historically relied on Russia for nearly all of its military and energy supplies. Moscow has played a central role in mediating between Armenia and its neighbors, and Russian soldiers patrol the borders separating Armenia from Turkey and neighboring Iran. A Russian military base in Gyumri has acted as a deterrent against a wider regional war, and Russian peacekeepers have been sent to patrol disputed areas where Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought.
But with Moscow tied up in Ukraine and unable to play as active a role as it has in previous decades, Yerevan’s young prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has sought to deepen ties with democracies, including the United States. Relations between Yerevan and Moscow soured after Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed enclave populated by ethnic Armenians, last September. That dramatic geopolitical shift sent ethnic Armenians fleeing the enclave for safety. It also injected fresh energy into Pashinyan’s aspirations of moving away from the Russian sphere of influence.
In a historic move in March, Yerevan requested that Russian border guards, who had been stationed in the country’s only international airport for decades, pack their bags and leave. Yerevan also suspended its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of post-Soviet states. In June, the U.S. and Armenia began what has been dubbed the U.S.-Armenia Strategic Dialogue Capstone, upgrading the U.S. relationship with the country to a strategic partnership. Around the time the U.S. lawmakers landed in the country in July, Armenia was holding 11 days of joint military exercises with the United States military, a move that infuriated Russia.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and the European Union have earmarked money to support Armenia’s westward transition. In April, the European Union unveiled a new plan to provide Yerevan with around $293 million (270 million euros) to boost its economy over the next four years, presumably reducing its economic dependence on Russia. The Senate Appropriations Committee also agreed to provide Armenia with about $65 million to assist with reforms and the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration.
“We have been seeing more visits coming from the United States, especially in recent months,” said Olesya Vartanyan, an expert on the South Caucasus at the International Crisis Group, who testified before Congress this week.
But despite the increased attention on the tiny landlocked country, its ability to reduce its dependence on Russia will rely on whether it can find some detente with its neighbors that will leave it slightly less vulnerable, and whether it can diversify its economy.
A large segment of the Armenian population believes it’s folly to reduce the country’s reliance on Russia. Some argue that moving away from Moscow means moving toward Yerevan’s enemies. For example, Pashinyan’s government faced backlash and protests following its decision to pursue a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, the final version of which has yet to materialize despite months of negotiations.
Edmon Marukyan, a former deputy in Armenia’s national assembly, told National Journal he doesn’t think the Pashinyan government has a plan to move away from Moscow because “it’s about geography, which is impossible to change or ignore.” He argues it’s unwise for the Armenian government to rely on Washington for support. After all, the U.S. has failed to convince Turkey to open its border with Armenia, and Washington stood by when Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh.
“The U.S. didn’t do anything against [the] autocratic regime of [Azerbaijan’s President Ilham] Aliyev to prevent the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh,” Marukyan said. “Moreover, Azerbaijan planned and implemented several aggressions against the sovereign territory of Armenia, which is invasion and occupation of the internationally recognized territories of Armenia. However, the U.S. continues the business as usual with Azerbaijan, contrary to public statements of U.S. officials.”
Some members of Congress have taken steps to block U.S. weapons sales to Azerbaijan over its actions toward its neighbor and other human rights abuses. Senate Resolution 540, introduced by Sens. Ed Markey and Bill Cassidy and co-sponsored by six other lawmakers, would require the State Department to provide Congress with a report documenting Azerbaijan’s human rights abuses within 30 days or terminate military assistance to Baku. Still, the resolution hasn’t moved out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee or attracted the 20 co-sponsors lawmakers initially hoped for.
Nevertheless, some in Armenia are hopeful that the U.S. relationship with Armenia is getting an upgrade.
“In a relatively short time, our relations with the U.S. are transforming into a multifaceted strategic partnership,” Paruyr Hovhannisyan, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister, told National Journal. “Currently, the sides are outlining the specific lines of efforts to deepen and widen this partnership, most likely till the end of this year.”
Ultimately, Armenian officials hope to get support to build their institutional capacity, pursue democratic reforms, and achieve lasting peace with the country’s neighbors, all of which will require time and sustained effort. Experts argue the U.S. must be clear-eyed about how long such a transition could take.
“Now is also a time to set realistic expectations. The road ahead will be long,” said Dan Baer, a former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, testifying before Congress about Armenia on Tuesday. “Casting off the burdens of cultivated dependency demands long-term structural reforms and investments. It is the work of a generation and will extend beyond the term of a single leader.”
