Hotline’s fall House Power Rankings

Summer volatility at the top of the ticket has not necessarily affected the race for the House. All cycle, Democratic and Republican camps have expected yet another tooth-and-nail election, and polling results—what little there are of House campaigns—have withstood the chaos at the presidential level.

But following the post-Labor Day blitz, there are some significant changes from our last iteration, which published in April. Eight races moved in Democrats' direction and seven moved in Republicans' favor.

Operatives predict the era of double-digit majorities is over—for now, at least—and are preparing for a drawn-out election process: The states most pivotal to the control of the gavel—New York and California—have arduous vote-counting processes. It’s more than likely no majority will be decided on Nov. 5.

As was true in the last edition, seats affected by redistricting do not appear on this list. That includes three near-automatic Republican wins in North Carolina. Elsewhere in the South, Louisiana and Alabama saw court challenges break in favor of Democrats. While a lower court initially overturned the Democratic-leaning map in the Pelican State, the Supreme Court stayed the ruling, and Louisiana state Sen. Cleo Fields is all but likely to return to Congress, as Republican Rep. Garret Graves announced he would not seek reelection this year.

In Alabama, Democrats and Republicans alike have monitored the newly drawn 2nd District, but polling has shown former Justice Department official Shomari Figures in a strong position to send a second Alabama Democrat to Congress in this Black-majority seat.

National Democrats and Republicans contend that each race exists within its own ecosystem and may be immune to national headwinds. While that isn’t always true, these rankings should not be read as a prediction of which party may control Congress, come January. Rather, each race should be interpreted on its own merits and independent of the greater battlefield.

Rankings were determined based on conversations with operatives, strategists, campaigns, and pollsters in both parties.

1. New York’s 22nd: Rep. Brandon Williams (R)

The top five in our list are unchanged, which means Williams remains the most vulnerable member in the country. The Democratic primary was unsettled back in April, but state Sen. John Mannion prevailed, as many party insiders expected. Private Democratic polling has shown Mannion in good shape, and redistricting in February made the Syracuse-area seat more favorable to Democrats. Williams does have one thing in his favor: New York Republicans have had success running against Albany—including Gov. Kathy Hochul—in recent years, but it’s unlikely to be enough to overcome the partisanship of the district.

2. New York’s 4th: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R)

D’Esposito was in danger before The New York Times reported this week that he allegedly put his fiancée’s daughter and his alleged mistress on his office payroll. The former cop has denied the allegations, but a cloud of controversy hangs over the freshman lawmaker. His Democratic opponent, Laura Gillen, has outraised him every quarter and has run a very competent campaign. President Biden carried this seat by nearly 15 points four years ago, and that alone might be too much for D'Esposito to overcome.

3. California’s 13th: Rep. John Duarte (R)

Republicans think Vice President Kamala Harris will bleed support in the Central Valley—which may be true—but this was a double-digit Biden seat in 2020 and one of the closest House races in the country in 2022, decided by fewer than 600 votes. Democrat Adam Gray, the 2022 nominee, is flush with cash. He raised more than double Duarte’s haul in the last filing period. Operatives say both candidates are relatively unknown and undefined, which may ultimately be Duarte’s biggest crutch in a presidential year.

4. Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

Gluesenkamp Perez is once again Hotline’s most vulnerable Democrat. Despite 2022 nominee Joe Kent emerging as her GOP opponent once again, she still faces an uphill battle in a seat former President Trump carried by 4 points. Kent’s far-right views alienated voters two years ago, but Gluesenkamp Perez only squeaked past him by less than a point. With Trump at the top of the ticket, the former president could drag Kent kicking and screaming across the line.

5. California’s 27th: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)

Garcia has benefited from a less-than-stellar Democratic challenger in each of his first three elections. But he doesn’t have that luxury this year as he faces former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides, a candidate universally acknowledged by strategists in both parties as a top recruit this cycle. This is also one of the races in a safe blue state that is helped by having Harris at the top of the ticket. Biden carried the district by 12 points in 2020, and Democratic strategists were worried that turnout would be depressed if the president remained on the ticket after that disastrous debate performance. The renewed enthusiasm around Harris eases those concerns and raises their hopes that Democrats can flip this seat back.

6. Michigan’s 7th: Open (D) ⬆

Last cycle, this Lansing-area seat was the most expensive House race in the country. This year, it may be the tipping point for control of the House. In 2022, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin beat Republican Tom Barrett by about 5 points, but now Slotkin is running for Senate and Barrett is back for another bite at the apple. A recent public poll from the National Republican Congressional Committee found Barrett leading Democratic former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, 48 percent to 43 percent. An independent poll from Inside Elections and Noble Predictive Insights from July showed Barrett up 7 points. Democrats still have a fighting chance, and control of this swing district might ultimately come down to which party carries the state at the presidential level.

7. Alaska At-Large: Rep. Mary Peltola (D) ⬆

Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom bowed out of the race after the primary, even though Alaska sends four candidates, regardless of party, to the general election. That effectively cleared the field for a head-to-head matchup between Peltola and Republican Nick Begich, who ran in 2022 along with Peltola and former Gov. Sarah Palin. Democrats say Peltola has created the best independent brand of any freshman member, but she has to contend with top-of-the-ticket headwinds in a state Trump carried by 10 points. Polling since Dahlstrom’s departure also reflects a quickly tightening race.

8. Oregon’s 5th: Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) ⬆

This is a big jump from No. 16 on the previous list, when Democrats faced a vitriolic primary between state Rep. Janelle Bynum and 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner, seen by many as a weak candidate who cost them this seat. Bynum took care of McLeod-Skinner in the primary, as D.C. Democrats hoped, instantly making this seat a top offensive opportunity for the party. There promises to be a lot of money spent here on both sides. Chavez-DeRemer has been a savvy politician in her first term, positioning herself one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, but partisanship—Trump lost the seat by 9 points in 2020—may win the day in the end.

9. Arizona’s 1st: Rep. David Schweikert (R) ⬆

Schweikert has been a white whale for Democrats the past few cycles. But now, Republicans are raising serious concerns about the seven-term member thanks to a surprisingly strong campaign from Amish Shah, his Democratic opponent. The former state representative emerged from the competitive primary awash with cash and has litigated the case against Schweikert on the airwaves. The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has taken notice, running attack ads against Shah. Abortion access is on the ballot in Arizona, giving Shah another boost.

10. New York’s 19th: Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) ⬇

Molinaro in recent weeks has turned his campaign into a referendum on immigration, calling out 2022 nominee Josh Riley for helping enable the controversy at the border and even trying to tie him to the drama in Springfield, Ohio. Republicans see an opportunity to improve in this district—a predominantly rural seat that stretches from Ithaca to the Massachusetts border. Riley is flush with cash after losing by fewer than 2 points in 2022. This race promises to be a dogfight.

12. Nebraska’s 2nd: Rep. Don Bacon (R) ⬆

The four-term congressman is in a perennial battleground. He’s had to walk a narrow tightrope between throwing his GOP base red meat and supporting more moderate legislation. The first signs of trouble for Bacon came earlier this year when a more conservative primary challenger garnered 38 percent of the vote in the June primary. Democrats have long targeted Bacon, and this year might be their best opportunity. Republicans’ failure to change Nebraska’s electoral rules means that national Democrats will still invest heavily in the suburban Omaha seat that could give Harris a critical Electoral College vote. The weight of partisanship might finally drag Bacon down.

13. North Carolina’s 1st: Rep. Don Davis (D) ⬇

Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s scandal-plagued gubernatorial campaign might not help Harris carry the Tar Heel State over Trump, but it could help Davis in his campaign against Republican Laurie Buckhout. Biden barely carried this rural North Carolina seat in 2020, and Democrats were worried that a competitive presidential and gubernatorial race further up the ticket would doom Davis. Now with Republicans fleeing Robinson and his support eroding after a bombshell report on his inflammatory comments on a porn website, Democrats are more than happy to tie Buckhout to a sinking ship.

14. Maine’s 2nd: Rep. Jared Golden (D) ⬆

Golden makes his first appearance on the list after remaining on the periphery for the entirety of the cycle. He has troubled Republicans by winning in a red seat for three cycles, but they feel this is the year they can pick him off. State Rep. Austin Theriault is Golden’s strongest opponent to date, and Golden has to contend with Trump atop the ticket. Theriault led Golden within the margin of error in the only public poll of the race, but it’s the worst-ever starting position for the incumbent, according to the Bangor Daily News. As strong as Golden is, he may ultimately run out of votes this time around, and a change in tune on gun rights may not help his case, either.

15. Arizona’s 6th: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) ⬇

This Tucson-anchored seat is emblematic of the clash between abortion rights and immigration. Democrats are constantly hitting Ciscomani on his votes to restrict abortion during his first term, while Republicans have featured in ads a clip of Democrat Kirsten Engel saying there’s no crisis at the border. This is a border district, and abortion is on the ballot in the Grand Canyon State, so both issues figure to be major factors. Engel lost by fewer than 2 points in 2022 without national investment. That won’t be the case this time, as she’ll have plenty of money in her second go-around. National groups have already poured millions into the seat.

16. California’s 22nd: Rep. David Valadao (R) ⬆

For most of his tenure in Congress, Valadao has cut the profile of a pragmatic dealmaker not afraid to buck his party. He’s the only GOP member remaining from a competitive district who voted to impeach Trump, and while that hasn’t endeared him to his GOP base, there are more than enough Democrats in the district that Biden carried by 13 points willing to split their ticket for him. But he might be in more trouble this time around. Democrat Rudy Salas, a 2022 retread, came within 1.5 points of beating him in California’s all-party primary in March, and Democratic strategists are confident that Valadao cannot defy political gravity during a presidential cycle in this southern Central Valley seat. Recent polling has shown a tightening race, and both parties are heavily invested on the airwaves.

17. Ohio’s 9th: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) ⬇

The “mayor” of Northwestern Ohio finds herself in the fight for her political life after drawing the most serious general election-challenger of her career. After Republicans in the state Legislature redrew her district to favor their party prior to the midterms, GOP voters nominated J.R. Majewski—an unmitigated disaster of a candidate—to take on Kaptur. She routed him two years ago and had hoped for a repeat performance this year. Unfortunately for her, Majewski’s comeback tour was thwarted when disparaging comments he made about the Special Olympics came to light. Instead, she’ll face Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin, a more mainstream Republican who can give the GOP a fighting chance of finally flipping a district that Trump carried by 3 points.

18. Pennsylvania’s 8th: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) ⬇

Cartwright has jumped around a bit on Hotline’s rankings: from No. 20 to No. 10, and now to No. 18. Trump carried this district in 2020, but Cartwright has proven himself to be a winner in his 12 years in office. Democratic polling has shown Cartwright with a safe lead, but this race will tighten as Election Day draws near, and the seat remains a top offensive opportunity for Republicans. Cartwright squares off against businessman Rob Bresnahan, certainly one of his stronger opponents. Cracking Cartwright’s image is Republicans’ toughest challenge here, and they may not be able to rely on partisanship alone to win the day.

19. Michigan’s 8th: Open (D) ⬆

Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee’s surprise retirement instantly made this seat a battleground, and it makes its first appearance among the cycle’s most vulnerable seats. Republicans are again running Paul Junge, a former Trump administration official who lost to Kildee by 10 points in 2022. Republican polling has shown promising results for Junge, and they believe Trump stands to win this Flint-based seat. Junge faces state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, a top recruit for Democrats who represents a majority of the district. Open seats are typically more volatile, and both parties view this one as crucial to winning the majority. Expect sparks in Flint in what could end up a very expensive affair.

20. Iowa’s 1st: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) ⬆

Miller-Meeks won the closest House race in the country in 2020, defeating Democrat Rita Hart by just 6 votes. This race won’t be as close, but it certainly is getting more competitive after Miller-Meeks cruised to victory against Democrat Christina Bohannan two years ago. Now, Bohannan is back and by all accounts running a much better race this time, boosted in part by the backlash to the state’s controversial six-week abortion ban. This race has only recently come on the national radar, with Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC adding an additional $1.1 million to its ad reservations in the district this week and the GOP-aligned CLF including the race in a new $18.5 million buy as well.