Sept. 27, 2024, 11:44 a.m.
Hotline made its list, checked them twice, and released its third iteration of House and Senate power rankings for the cycle. There were some significant changes on both lists, but not every competitive race has the privilege of making the coveted spot on the most vulnerable seats.
CA-45: Democrats have never felt better about picking Rep. Michelle Steel (R) off than this cycle. Public polling has shown consumer-rights attorney Derek Tran (D) leading within the margin of error, and money has flowed to the district. It’s nigh impossible to change an entrenched incumbent’s image in an expensive district overnight, so Democrats have work to do, but they feel emboldened by Steel’s prior views on abortion.
IA-03: Iowa has come online for Democrats, fueled largely by a six-week abortion ban that went into effect this summer. Freshman Rep. Zach Nunn (R) faces well-funded former Agriculture Department official Lanon Baccam (D), and polls have looked good for Democrats in Iowa since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. This is one to watch over the next month.
NM-02: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) appeared in the previous two editions of Hotline’s ranking, but other races developing rapidly and a dearth of recent data in the southern New Mexico district forced it off the top 20. This seat has flipped every cycle since 2018, but redistricting after 2020 made this seat skew toward Democrats. Former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) is back for her fourth run for Congress, setting up a rematch that was by decided less than a point last time.
NY-17: Another seat that falls off after two appearances, Rep. Mike Lawler (R) has done just about everything right so far in Congress to keep his image separate from the national party. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) has work to do—limited Democratic polling shows Lawler up within the margin of error—but Harris should perform well in this seat that former President Trump lost by 10 points in 2020. Expect this race to be close, exciting, and expensive.
FL SEN: Sen. Rick Scott (R), much like his previous contests, is facing a tough election battle against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) despite his self-funding prowess. However, Democrats haven’t had the best of luck winning statewide races in recent years. On the other hand, the DSCC’s recently announced multimillion dollar TV investment in Florida and Texas—which moved down to No. 10 in the rankings—could help keep Mucarsel-Powell and Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX 32) in contention against massive GOP spending.
NE SEN: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) isn’t facing a Democrat but rather union leader Dan Osborn (I), who’s appeared to attract crossover appeal in the ruby-red state. The lack of substantial nonpartisan polling has made it difficult to characterize the state of this race, but it appears Fischer and the NRSC are paying attention—particularly with their pocketbooks.
— James A. Downs and Nicholas Anastácio
jdowns@nationaljournal.com and nanastacio@nationaljournal.com
