Oct. 2, 2024, 12:09 a.m.
The American people got a throwback debate Tuesday night from two vice presidential candidates who reached back a few decades for a civil and generally cordial airing of differences. Most notable about the exchange was the emergence of a Republican nominee who for most of the night bore little resemblance to the Sen. J.D. Vance who has been on display in the months since the Republican convention.
That post-convention Vance was often truculent and defiant, taking hard lines on women, abortion, and immigration while showing unwavering fealty to former President Trump. In contrast, the Vance on the New York debate stage was polite and soft-spoken, agreeing that immigrants should not be demonized, and showing openness to a softer line on abortion than Trump has held.
It was a pivot that may have put Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee, off balance. Walz failed to contest many of Vance’s attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris.
It wasn’t until the final half hour of the debate, sponsored by CBS, when Walz had his finest moments, enthusiastically championing family and child care and passionately pressing Vance on his refusal to break with Trump’s false insistence that the 2020 election was corruptly rigged and to promise that he would accept a Trump defeat this year.
“That is a damning non-answer,” Walz shot back when Vance dodged his point-blank question: “Did he lose the 2020 election?” It was Vance’s weakest moment as he tried to defend the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, and insist the real threat to democracy comes from Democrats trying to block disinformation on social media.
Before that exchange, the debate was remarkable for its civility. “I don’t think Senator Vance and I are that far apart,” said Walz at one point, calling the debate “a healthy conversation.”
A more experienced debater, Vance seemed more comfortable with the format, perhaps benefiting as well from doing many more press interviews over the summer than Walz. He also seemed acutely aware of the points that, much to the chagrin of most Republicans, Trump had failed to make in his debate with Harris. Vance frequently noted that Harris has been in office as vice president for almost four years, asking why she has not implemented the policies she now proposes.
He also tried to take advantage of the current crisis in the Middle East, lamenting the “chaos” in the world and yearning for a return to the “steady leadership” he insisted was a hallmark of Trump’s first term. Walz’s memories of those four years were different, as he recalled “fickle leadership.”
Few moments in the 11 previous vice presidential debates have been memorable, beyond Dan Quayle comparing himself to John F. Kennedy in 1988, Bob Dole blaming Democrats for all of America’s wars in 1976, and James Stockdale asking, “Who am I? Why am I here?” in 1992. None ended up having much impact on the outcome of the election.
There was no line from this debate that will be similarly remembered. And there is no guarantee that it will move a single vote, though it may buoy Republicans who were dismayed by Trump’s uneven performance in his debate.
George H.W. Bush famously refused to debate Democrat Walter Mondale in 1980, brushing off both the debate and the job he was running for, likening it to baseball’s minor leagues. “We’re the Toledo Mud Hens,” he said dismissively.
In this strangest of all campaign years, though, though, both Vance and Walz acted like they want that call-up to the Major Leagues and that their one night in the spotlight will matter in November.
Walz entered the debate as considerably more popular among voters than Vance as measured by the polls.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Vance’s unfavorability has worsened since Trump announced his selection. On Tuesday, he stood at 45.8 percent unfavorable and 34.8 percent favorable. Walz was at 40 percent favorable and 36.5 percent unfavorable.
The challenge for both candidates was laid out in the CBS News poll released on Monday. It found that voters view both candidates as “competent”—57 percent said that of Walz; 55 percent of Vance. But neither candidate had persuaded a majority of voters that he is “qualified to be president.” Walz was closer, with 49 percent saying he is qualified and 51 percent saying he is not. Vance was underwater by 12 points, with 56 percent saying he is unqualified.
On that score, neither candidate looked over his head or awed by the challenge. Both Democrats and Republicans took some encouragement from the night.
“Vance was everything Trump can never be—articulate, knowledgeable on issues, nice, and sane,” said one longtime Republican operative. “A lot of Republicans are saying to themselves it's too bad we can't flip the ticket.” He added, “Walz delivered on abortion, but Vance delivered the new GOP response that Trump can't.”
Veteran Democratic strategist Jerry Austin called it “perhaps the most important VP debate ever” because the public knows so little about the two men and “because of Trump’s age, Vance could be president.” He said Walz “decided to ditch folksy and sell competence” but lost in the image battle because so much of his time on camera was spent writing notes.
Now, both Vance and Walz step out of the spotlight and back into the shadows like any good running mate. Unlike those past VP debates, this one may matter only because of the calendar. Never before have the No. 2's starred in the last major show of a presidential campaign. Always before, at least one, often two debates loomed between the presidential candidates after the VP contenders squared off. But with Trump refusing to do another debate against Harris, the last event with a guaranteed big audience is now over. All that is left are the rallies and speeches and the ads, almost all of which will play out in the handful of states that will pick the winner. For the rest of the nation, Tuesday night was it.
Tom DeFrank contributed to this article.
