Oct. 11, 2024, 11:43 a.m.
The mounting scandals surrounding North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s (R) bid for governor has further increased the likelihood that Democrats will maintain control of the governorship. Once considered the cycle’s marquee toss-up race, the bombshell headlines have all but certainly driven the nail in the coffin of an already struggling campaign. Recent polling of the race has shown Robinson trailing state Attorney General Josh Stein in the double-digits.
The shifting winds in North Carolina leave just one race on the gubernatorial map that is considered a true draw: the open seat in New Hampshire. The contest between former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Manchester Joyce Craig (D) is Republicans’ heaviest defensive lift, as well as Democrats’ best pickup opportunity.
New Hampshire-based political strategists from both parties told Hotline the race is already at a fever pitch—and any increase in national media attention would only underscore that point. Instead, they say the race will simply come to which candidates’ message the voters are buying. Both parties are spending big to get those messages across on the airwaves. Nearly $22 million has been spent on ads since the late Sept. 10 primary last month, according to AdImpact.
Ayotte, who has been endorsed by retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R), has positioned herself as the candidate to keep the state “on the right track” by continuing in the popular governor’s conservative footsteps. She has also attacked Craig’s record as mayor of Manchester and has claimed that electing her opponent would lead to higher taxes. Craig has centered much of her campaign on safeguarding reproductive rights, and has claimed that Ayotte would threaten those freedoms if elected. Ayotte has insisted that she would uphold the state’s current 24-week law, but Craig has zeroed on her record in the Senate, including support for a national 20-week abortion and multiple votes to defund Planned Parenthood.
Polling has shown a razor-thin race. The most recent poll from Saint Anselm College found Ayotte leading by just 3 points. At the risk of sounding trite, strategists say the narrow margins mean that voter turnout—and the potential impact that the top of the ticket could play in that equation—will also be meaningful.
“It’s like when you say, ‘what’s important in football?’” former state Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan quipped to Hotline. “Offense, defense, and special teams.”
— Mary Frances McGowan
mmcgowan@nationaljournal.com
Programming note: Hotline is off Monday for the holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.
