Oct. 17, 2024, 4:54 p.m.
Republican Sen. Deb Fischer helped solidify the GOP’s hold over Nebraska twelve years ago when she flipped a seat held by Democrats for nearly four decades. Dan Osborn is looking to break the party’s hold on the Cornhusker State’s politics.
Osborn, a union leader and independent candidate, has rejected all partisan affiliation in the hopes of persuading Republican-leaning voters. This sets him apart from previous independent candidates running for Senate in red states who accepted their state Democratic Party’s endorsement. Osborn has also committed to caucusing outside of the two major parties in the Senate.
Republicans have occupied both of the state’s Senate seats since Fischer was first elected to the chamber in 2012. Since then, Democrats have struggled to compete with Republicans statewide.
“It's been much more challenging as you move up the ballot for federal races and statewide races,” said Jim Rogers, a former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. “You know, we've really got to figure out the messaging that will resonate outside of the urban corridors of Lincoln and Omaha.”
Fischer has become accustomed to double-digit wins in her past two Senate runs, winning with 57 percent of the vote both times. But strategists from both parties believe the senator could garner a smaller vote share in November—even if she manages to win reelection.
“I think this is by far the most interesting race that Fischer has been in, at least since she initially won office,” said John Hibbing, a retired political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “Usually the only interesting race in Nebraska is for the Republican primary.”
Much of the attention to the contest has been focused on polling in the race—a heavy majority coming from Osborn and his allies. A SurveyUSA poll released this week found Osborn at 50 percent and ahead of Fischer by 6 points. On the other hand, a poll commissioned by Fischer’s campaign released Thursday shows the incumbent ahead by 6 points, albeit down from a 26-point lead in July.
Ryan Horn, president of Bullhorn Communications—an Omaha-based political advertising firm that serves Republican candidates, told National Journal that Fischer’s campaign “has done everything to help the upset come about” and described its ad campaign as “terrible.”
“Dan Osborn’s home message is that she’s a typical politician that gets elected, does what she wants, and doesn’t deliver anything for you,” Horn said.
Pro-Fischer ads have emphasized the senator’s endorsement from former President Trump—who carried the state by 19 points in 2020—and branded Osborn a “radical” and a “Democrat.” Horn said the campaign’s messaging is a “gamble,” especially in the Omaha metro area within the state’s Democratic-leaning 2nd Congressional District.
“She’s done a lot of good things for the state, a lot of good things for the people of the city of Omaha,” Horn said. “Like, make an ad about it.”
The race has also become centered on the senator’s decision to seek a third term, a reversal on a commitment she made to only serve two terms in the Senate when she first ran in 2012. Fischer said earlier this month her reversal was motivated by the importance of seniority in the chamber to obtain “good committee assignments,” as well as the lack of a term limit standard in the Senate.
U.S. Term Limits, a nonpartisan organization committed to implementing congressional term limits, accused the senator of violating a 2011 pledge she made with the group to cosponsor an amendment limiting senators to two six-year terms. The senator cosponsored the term limits amendment on three occasions during her first term, but she hasn’t cosponsored the amendment on the three occasions it’s been introduced during her second term.
Derek Oden, a spokesperson for the Fischer campaign, told National Journal in a statement that the senator “supports term limits when they apply to everyone.”
“Until they do, she plans to use her seniority to keep bringing home big wins for the state,” Oden said.
Osborn’s path to success lies in winning virtually all the state’s Democratic voters, a supermajority of independents, and at least one-fifth of Republican voters. Rogers explained that Osborn will need to build support in counties along the state’s northeastern border with the Missouri River and Interstate 29, as well as in rural counties north and south of Interstate 80.
“Fischer’s strong point comes from ranch land, which is kind of the middle north of Nebraska,” Rogers said. “Osborn seems like he is making really good inroads with railway workers which are dominant in North Platte and Alliance, which are larger city hubs in the western part of the state.”
On the other hand, Fischer’s campaign argues the senator’s northwestern roots and Osborn’s Omaha-based residence will ultimately benefit the Republican incumbent among rural voters.
“Sen. Fischer is a conservative family rancher with over a decade of rural and farm policy wins under her belt,” Oden said. “Dan Osborn has stated he ‘knows nothing about farming or ranching’ and his support comes primarily from liberal Democrats, which are scarce in rural Nebraska.”
While chatter about the race has increased in recent months, there is still uncertainty over whether the race is truly as competitive as internal polling suggests. Former state Sen. Laura Ebke, a former Republican, said she believes the GOP’s partisan advantage in the state will likely deliver Fischer a victory over Osborn. However, Ebke told National Journal she welcomes the apparent competitiveness of the race, saying it’s “good for democracy” in the ruby red state.
“I think that this is a good thing, you know, to kind of stir things up a little bit, whether he wins or loses,” Ebke said. “And if it’s Fischer, it’s good for her to have to be challenged a little bit.”
