Nov. 7, 2024, 7:15 p.m.
Donald Trump’s sweeping reelection has left European leaders and diplomats desperately seeking silver linings and pondering how to bolster Europe’s defenses when the mercurial former president, who has never prioritized the continent’s security, officially occupies the White House again in January.
When President Biden leaves office in January, Europe will lose its most powerful ally. French President Emmanuel Macron jumped on the phone Wednesday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to coordinate the continent’s approach to the new political reality.
“Donald Trump was elected by the Americans to defend the interests of the Americans,” Macron said during a postelection speech. “The question for us, Europeans, is, are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans?”
Some in Europe fear that Trump will give autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin a blank check to pursue their global ambitions. There is deep concern that Trump will end military assistance for Ukraine, which is fighting an existential war for its independence from Russia, now in its third year. Several European diplomats, who asked to speak on background in order to talk frankly, told National Journal that the impact of the U.S. election on the Ukraine war is their primary concern.
“Trump’s win is bad news for Europe. All those [who] say we made it through four years of Trump before I think underestimate what is happening,” said Daniel Freund, a German politician and member of the European Parliament. Freund said he worries that Republicans will potentially control both chambers of Congress, giving Trump free rein to implement his agenda. He’s also concerned about the president-elect’s allies implementing their now-infamous Project 2025, a 900-page policy blueprint that recommends gutting the civil service and abolishing nearly all reproductive health care, among other policies. Trump has also floated the idea of imposing steep tariffs on all imports, including from allies.
“I fear for American democracy. I fear for Ukraine. I fear for European security and trade,” Freund added.
Trump’s vice presidential pick, Sen. J.D. Vance, is one of the most outspoken voices against Ukraine aid in Congress. While many Republicans, especially those in the Senate, continue to support Ukraine wholeheartedly, Europeans expressed concern that Trump’s election victory would be a win for his brand of isolationism and Vance’s more extreme views. Trump has said he would end the war in Ukraine as soon as he comes to office but has not articulated a vision for how he would do that. Experts worry he would force Ukraine to give up territory to end the war, negotiating terms that would be favorable to Putin.
Many European politicians argue that now is the time for Europe to take its security seriously. Conversations about exactly how to do that unfolded on the continent over the past year as the U.S. election drew near.
European leaders began laying the groundwork for a second Trump administration, seizing, for example, around $48 billion in interest from Russia’s frozen assets to give to Ukraine in the form of loans. Other European policymakers pushed initiatives to source ammunition from places other than the United States. Still, it’s unclear whether Europe can boost domestic arms manufacturing significantly in the near term. Even the United States, by far the world’s largest weapons manufacturer, is struggling to produce enough arms to defend itself and supply its allies when faced with numerous wars. If Washington turns its back on Kyiv, the effects on the battlefield could be catastrophic.
Nevertheless, some Europeans point to Trump’s past actions, such as increasing the number of U.S. troops in Poland or providing Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank weapons systems, as reasons to be cautiously optimistic.
“Trump’s return could reshape Europe’s security landscape. Actions taken during his first term actually underscored America’s commitment to NATO, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, bolstering regional, including Latvia’s, security,” said Rihards Kols, a member of the European Parliament from Latvia. “However, a shift in U.S. support for Ukraine would challenge regional stability, potentially emboldening adversaries.
“This is a moment for Europe, and [for] Latvia, to reinforce its own defense capabilities, strengthen regional alliances, and ensure NATO remains resilient,” Kols added. “While we hope to maintain strong transatlantic ties, Europe must be ready to take greater responsibility for its security alongside the U.S., which we collectively should have done years ago.”
Lucia Yar, a member of the European Parliament from Slovakia, told National Journal that Trump’s election is a clear signal that Europe cannot rely solely on transatlantic ties.
“We must invest in strengthening our own defense capabilities and building a competitive economy to stand independently,” Yar said. “The good news is that NATO is stronger today, with the recent additions of Finland and Sweden reinforcing its unity. In response to this election, Europe must move forward as a strong, independent voice on the global stage.”
One European diplomat who spoke on background stressed that now is a time for pragmatism. European capitals are thinking strategically about pursuing their interests while advancing critical issues like European security, Ukraine’s defense, and the U.S. role as an enforcer of human rights and global norms.
“We think there’s a way to work with [the] GOP and Trump on all of these things,” the diplomat said. “[We have] few illusions on our ability to tell them what to do, but we do hear some good things from people around Trump and will try to work with those people.
“Like everyone else, we think Europe needs to be very serious about its own defense and support to Ukraine,” the diplomat added. “This is a wake-up call.”
Kristjan Prikk, Estonia’s ambassador to Washington, said Trump’s style of governance could open up new opportunities because he is a disruptive leader. That echoes what many Ukrainians, frustrated by the limits and conditions the Biden administration has put on the use of Western-supplied weapons to Kyiv, have said over the past year. They hope that it might be possible to persuade Trump to go further than President Biden, even by allowing Kyiv to use Western-supplied weapons to strike deep into Russia.
Capt. Pavel Poznansky, a 31-year-old Ukrainian war veteran who was wounded fighting in the city of Mariupol’s bitter battle at the Azovstal Steel and Iron Works, said he is confident that Trump will continue to support Ukraine, including with weapons shipments and sanctions against Russia.
“I really believe that Donald Trump is going to support Ukraine. That is my personal opinion,” Poznansky said. “I’m sure the U.S. will be doing more, even regarding some sanctions against Russia, and I really hope that they will help us in our fight against Russia.”
Amb. Prikk also noted that he expects U.S. participation in NATO to continue after Trump takes office, despite the president-elect’s past claims that he would allow Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members that don’t spend the goal of 2 percent of GDP on defense. He argues that Trump’s first term in office helped push NATO allies to spend a more significant percentage of their national budgets on defense.
“We don’t see a reason to be pessimistic,” Prikk told National Journal, “but rather, we are looking forward to this cooperation to continue.”
