Dec. 12, 2024, 1:06 p.m.
In the agony of defeat, House Democrats are finding silver linings.
Republicans flipped the White House and the Senate, but the House was the lone bright spot on an otherwise dark night for Democrats. As they look to rebuild and challenge Republicans for the majority in the midterms, Democrats are hanging their hats on outrunning the national environment on the heels of a strong candidate roster.
House Democrats ended the cycle with one additional seat, and just 7,309 votes across three races decided the majority.
“I think Election Day demonstrated that Democrats were sailing into headwinds,” Rep. Brad Schneider of Illinois told National Journal. Schneider next year will head the center-left New Democrat Coalition, the largest Democratic group on Capitol Hill and the only Democratic caucus to flip seats in November.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene said she was proud of her slate of candidates, despite the challenges Election Day presented Democrats.
“Absolutely candidate quality does matter,” DelBene told National Journal. “We had, across the board, authentic candidates, folks who were focused on pocketbook issues.”
That translated to better-than-expected performances from the DCCC’s Frontline members, the committee’s list of most vulnerable incumbents. According to a preliminary DCCC analysis, Frontliners outran Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 2.7 points in 31 districts. Battleground candidates, both incumbents and challengers, also outperformed Harris among Hispanic and Black voters.
Democrats’ performance was enough for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to entrust DelBene with leading the political arm for another term. She’ll be tasked with trying to net three seats in the midterms.
As she prepares for another cycle as House Democrats’ campaign chief, DelBene said she thought the committee did a good job of recruiting and making sure those candidates had enough resources to compete, but she sees room to improve in the next cycle.
DelBene said that many candidates “stepped out early and expressed interest in running” and that many of those candidates had established backgrounds in their communities.
“I think continuing to look at ways we can communicate with people throughout communities is important,” DelBene continued.
Voters these days have a higher B.S. detector than ever before. They assume politicians are lying. ”
— Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson
Downballot strength allowed House Democrats to stave off losses in several districts President-elect Trump won; this cycle, House Democrats will have at least 13 members in districts Trump carried, according to a GOP analysis, up from five crossover members two years ago.
One of those candidates is Rep.-elect Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan, who won a heavily contested, Flint-based open seat. McDonald Rivet, one of Democrats’ best recruits this cycle, outran Harris by 9 points en route to a 6-point win.
She said her win came down to authenticity and a campaign “really rooted on working families.”
“My TV ads were me looking directly into the camera, raising a beer,” McDonald Rivet told National Journal. “You saw us getting coffee before work in our kitchen.”
House Democrats excelled at that relatability, strategists say, in an era of political distrust.
“Voters these days have a higher B.S. detector than ever before. They assume politicians are lying,” said veteran Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That’s the hurdle everyone has to get over, and a bunch of these House Democratic candidates were able to show how they were going to be delivering something different.”
Despite some positive results, Democrats didn’t flip the House in a cycle they entered with high expectations—especially as the Republican Conference was marred by chaos in the early days of the session.
“I don’t think we should get too carried away in patting ourselves on the back,” Rep. Josh Harder, a California Democrat whose district flipped to Trump this year, told National Journal. “It’s great that many of our candidates ran ahead of the ticket … but we still need to take this opportunity to look back on not just this last election but the last, frankly, 12 years, where we have been losing support among many voters we considered once part of our traditional Democratic base.”
Schneider echoed that sentiment, adding that his party and caucus will do a “brass-tacks assessment” of the election.
“We’re going to understand where we succeeded but also understand and know where we could do better,” Schneider said. “But we’re not participating in the circular firing squad. We’re going to focus on the future.”
Since the election, Democrats have undergone plenty of soul-searching and finger-pointing as they try to figure out what went wrong. While some online voices have blamed the Harris campaign, House Democrats say otherwise.
“There really wasn’t much more that she could have been doing in the 107 days [of her campaign],” Rep. Ann McLane Kuster of New Hampshire told National Journal. “I think part of it is that voters were not feeling heard and feeling connected.”
Kuster said she was confident that with the “right message” and the “right messenger,” Democrats will set themselves up for success in 2026. Who or what that is remains a mystery.
On Wednesday, House Majority PAC, the main outside group affiliated with House Democrats, launched its “2026 Recruitment Fund,” a project the group says will allow it to “recruit and prepare candidates earlier than ever.” Democrats have begun working to recruit candidates earlier in the cycle than ever before, and HMP’s program may bolster that effort.
Some names floated by strategists to run in 2026 include Liz Whitmer Gereghty, who ran briefly for a Hudson Valley, New York, seat in 2022; state Sen. Sarah Anthony of Michigan for a Lansing-area seat; and state Sen. Dafna Michaelson Jenet of Colorado for a seat in the northern Denver suburbs.
