Jan. 21, 2025, 3:22 p.m.
President Trump is back in office, and boy, did he put on a show on Inauguration Day. The ceremony itself was traditional enough—even if it was inside and punctuated by a speech more scathing than most incoming presidents give—but the rest of the day was about show.
Capping off an indoor parade at D.C.’s Capital One Arena, Trump signed executive orders in front of the crowd, throwing his pens to screaming fans who jockeyed to catch one like they would a foul ball from Shohei Ohtani. The only thing missing was a T-shirt cannon. He then signed more in the Oval Office, narrating the process as he went, while answering questions from (and sparring with) reporters.
Trump’s talent for keeping a crowd entertained is unmatched in politics. He is an entertainer, and he knows how to feed on a crowd’s energy and mirror it back to them. He knows that everything—everything—including the mundane practice of signing executive orders, is better with a crowd of happy supporters watching.
This skill contributed in no small part to Trump twice becoming president, and it is certainly how he gained command of the Republican Party. Most of the establishment Republicans who opposed him at first quickly got in line when they realized that he had gained total control over their most dedicated base voters. Quite a few elected Republicans who wanted to continue opposing Trump left office and/or the party altogether.
Trump’s ability to make politics entertainment is a big reason he has been able to expand the Republican base, at least when he is on the ballot. Turning out typical nonvoters is a substantial reason pollsters have underestimated Trump in every election he’s competed in—granted, the industry did better in 2024, but polls still slightly undervalued his support.
Combine the entertainment factor with his reputation as a businessman—which is also nontrivially related to his ability to entertain from a fake boardroom on The Apprentice—and you have a powerful force, the likes of which no voter alive today has seen before. President Reagan was a movie star, but he largely adapted to the usual expectations of formality as a politician. Trump is something else entirely.
Trump’s penchant for entertainment and gathering large masses to chant his name makes it even more important that we keep our eyes on polling as he rolls out his agenda. Polls take a lot of heat—they have been wrong about recent elections, and people often don’t like seeing that not everyone thinks the same way they do. But polls are still the best way we have to figure out how most voters feel.
The big picture that polling provides is an important check on the imagery of tens of thousands of adoring fans—imagery we might see frequently, as Trump could continue to hold regular rallies as he did during his first term. It is also an important check on the constant stream of social media posts, press releases, and comments to the press from Trump and his administration touting how popular and loved he is, regardless of reality. After the initial honeymoon period he is getting, he is unlikely to have higher approval ratings than he did during his first term, when the numbers hovered around 40 percent most of the time.
As I’ve written, polling also provides a check on the actual popularity of actions that Trump and his administration say people want. Trump may not care whether his actions are popular, but Republicans running in 2026 will care about how he’s viewed as they try to keep their trifecta intact. Democrats care about their chances of breaking up the trifecta.
The tricky part of monitoring public opinion is, of course, that many voters aren’t paying attention to the minutiae of governing. From a strategic standpoint for Democrats, effectively blaming Trump for his unpopular policies will require knowing which battles to pick and a campaign to make voters aware of the actions.
Choosing the battles will be key—fighting popular policies like deporting criminals living in the country illegally is a waste of time and erodes credibility with the American people, 82 percent of whom support it. On the other hand, at least two of Trump’s first-day executive orders run badly afoul of public opinion: pardoning nearly all (and commuting sentences of the rest) of those convicted of crimes related to the insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and attempting to end birthright citizenship.
Trump the entertainer will be busy selling his side of the story in rallies and large sporting events. Anyone who wants to counter his message had better get started soon.
Contributing editor Natalie Jackson is a vice president at GQR Research.
